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Major League Soccer

Sporting KC - LA Galaxy

05/14/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Sporting KC
1.1
Total xG
3.0
LA Galaxy
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

6%

2:1

6%
What influences the xG?
SKLG

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.48x league average)
-1.42
Defensive weakness (2.9 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.99
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.68
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.4 vs 0.7 season average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.07
16% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Strong home record (0.9 vs 0.7 goals/match)

LA Galaxy

Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.68
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.21
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.03
J. De Mello not in squad (5 goals, 0 assists)
27% of goal output missing (only 72% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting KC: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    LA Galaxy: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    LA Galaxy: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 4
    Sporting KC: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Sporting KC with Capita: 0.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

25%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win for LA Galaxy with 54%
  • Sporting KC is in negative form and failed to secure a win in their last 5 matches
  • LA Galaxy shows more stable form with 2 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches
Risk Factors
  • Sporting KC's goal production is stagnant with an average of 0.4 goals in recent matches
  • Sporting KC recorded an average of only 3 shots on target per game recently
  • LA Galaxy concedes an average of 1.83 goals per away game
Overview

Sporting KC (15th place, 5 points) host LA Galaxy (9th place, 16 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on May 14, 2026, 1:30 AM

Sporting KC is struggling at the bottom of the table

LA Galaxy aims to establish itself in the playoff ranks

Form

Sporting KC shows very poor form with "LLLDL"

In the last 5 matches, they recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses

The last match ended in a loss

LA Galaxy is in more stable condition with "DLWDW"

The team registered 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The last match was a win

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Sporting KC averages 0.73 goals scored per game and concedes 2.91 goals

At home, they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.57 goals conceded per home game

Sporting KC kept 0 clean sheets in home games

Both teams scored in 6 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 matches

LA Galaxy averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per match

Away from home, they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.83 goals conceded per away game

LA Galaxy kept 0 clean sheets in away games

Both teams scored in 11 matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 9 matches

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Sporting KC secured 2 wins and LA Galaxy 3 wins

Sporting KC scored 8 goals, while LA Galaxy scored 12 goals

The last encounter was won by LA Galaxy on March 15, 2026, with a 2:1 score

LA Galaxy has dominated recent encounters

Key Players

For Sporting KC, Dejan Joveljić is an important offensive player with 5 season goals and 1 assist

His form is stable with an average rating of 6.79 in the last 5 games

Lasse Berg Johnsen scored 1 goal and 0 assists this season, his form is declining

Calvin Harris has 0 goals and 1 assist this season with stable form

For LA Galaxy, Marco Reus is a key player with 4 goals and 4 assists in stable form this season

Gabriel Pec scored 3 goals and 3 assists this season and shows stable form

Joseph Paintsil contributed 2 goals and 2 assists and is in stable form

Goalkeepers

Stefan Cleveland of Sporting KC played in 2 season games and kept 0 clean sheets

J. Marcinkowski of LA Galaxy appeared in 8 season games and managed 0 clean sheets

Sporting KC has achieved 0 clean sheets this season, while LA Galaxy recorded 1 clean sheet

Influences

Sporting KC scores an average of 0.71 goals at home and concedes 1.57 goals

LA Galaxy scores an average of 1.5 goals away and concedes 1.83 goals

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