Match report →
Austin – Vancouver Whitecaps1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Austin
1.07
Total xG
3.21
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austin | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.96 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.77 | +0.77 |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.73 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.30 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Facundo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Guilherme Biro on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Oliver Larraz on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Yadaly Diaby on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.7 vs 2.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Vancouver Whitecaps is 1st in the league with 52 points, Austin 14th with 31 points
- Defense: Austin allowed 2.85 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 2.2 goals per game
- Attack: Vancouver scores 2.10 goals per game in the league this season, Austin concedes 1.86 per game in the league
Risks
- Form: Vancouver Whitecaps with 1 win from their last 5 matches
- Rest days: Vancouver Whitecaps with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Austin17%
Draw22%
Vancouver Whitecaps61%
Double chance
Austin or draw39%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw83%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
1:3
7%
0:3
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (7 of 12 total)
- Austin: 47% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (7 of 15)
- Austin: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Austin: 3 comebacks in 6 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
Lineups
Austin 3-4-3 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 15 J. Bell
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 38 E. Torres
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 21 C. Ramírez
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 10 M. Uzuni
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 20 A. Cubas
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 25 R. Gauld
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 12 D. Las
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 3 M. Desler
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 22 C. Applewhite
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 8 O. Larraz
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 4 R. Veselinović
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