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Major League Soccer

Dallas - Vancouver Whitecaps

05/14/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.3
Total xG
2.9
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

7%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
DALVW

Dallas

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-1.11
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.50
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.47
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.15
Joaquín Valiente on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Santiago Moreno on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (0.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.65
Attack strength (1.72x league average)
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.14
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.00
Thomas Müller not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Vancouver Whitecaps with Oliver Larraz: 9.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2.2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Dallas with Sam Sarver: 7.2 goals/90 min. Without: 2 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Vancouver Whitecaps: 3 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (5 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

30%

Draw

27%

Away Win

43%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

57%

Away or Draw

70%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 43%, with an expected 1.61 goals for Vancouver Whitecaps
  • Vancouver Whitecaps show a strong away offense, averaging 3.0 goals per game, while Dallas concede 1.62 goals at home
  • Vancouver Whitecaps averaged 7.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, highlighting their offensive strength
Risk Factors
  • Dallas' recent goal production is stagnating at 1.6 goals, while the season average is 2.1 goals
  • Vancouver Whitecaps' recent goal production of 2.0 goals is lower than their season average of 2.5 goals
Overview

Dallas (6th place, 19 points) host Vancouver Whitecaps (2nd place, 26 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on May 14, 2026, 1:30 AM

Vancouver Whitecaps are placed higher in the table

Form

Dallas' form in the last five games is DLLWW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with two consecutive wins as the latest results

Vancouver Whitecaps show a form of WWWDD

This indicates 3 wins, 2 draws, and no losses in their last five matches, with two consecutive draws as the most recent results

Statistics

Dallas averages 1.92 goals scored and 1.33 goals conceded per game this season

The team has recorded 3 clean sheets, 7 games where both teams scored, and 7 games with over 2.5 goals

At home, Dallas scores an average of 2.0 goals and concedes 1.62 goals

Vancouver Whitecaps have a season average of 2.45 goals scored and only 0.64 goals conceded

They kept 5 clean sheets, had 5 games with both teams scoring, and 6 games with over 2.5 goals

Away from home, Vancouver Whitecaps average 3.0 goals scored and concede 1.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Dallas secured 1 win, Vancouver Whitecaps won 2, and there were 2 draws

The goal difference stands at 3:6 in favor of Vancouver Whitecaps

Their last encounter on November 2, 2025, ended in a 1:1 draw

Vancouver Whitecaps have been recently dominant in these matchups

Key Players

For Dallas, Petar Musa is a key offensive player with 10 season goals and 2 assists, holding an average rating of 7.55

Logan Farrington has contributed 4 goals and 2 assists this season with a rating of 7.0

Defensively, Osaze Urhoghide shows stable performance with 1 goal and 1 assist and a rating of 7.18

For Vancouver Whitecaps, Sebastian Berhalter is crucial in midfield with 4 goals and 5 assists and an average rating of 7.91

Brian White leads the attack with 8 season goals and a rating of 7.03

Mathías Laborda contributes with 3 goals and 3 assists and a rating of 7.28

Goalkeepers

Michael Collodi is Dallas' goalkeeper with an average rating of 6.85 in 12 appearances

Dallas has recorded 3 clean sheets this season

For Vancouver Whitecaps, Yohei Takaoka is in goal, showing a rating of 6.82 in 11 appearances

Vancouver Whitecaps have kept 5 clean sheets

Influences

Dallas exhibits an offensive performance at home, scoring an average of 2.0 goals, while the defense allows 1.62 goals

Vancouver Whitecaps perform strongly away, scoring 3.0 goals per game, with a defense that concedes an average of 1.5 goals

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