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Major League Soccer

Toronto - Austin

04/18/2026, 05:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Toronto
1.6
Total xG
2.7
Austin
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
TORAUS

Toronto

Attack weakness (0.59x league average)
-0.54
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 12, 6 places gap)
+0.05
20% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Austin

Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.67
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.16
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 6, 6 places gap)
-0.07
Weak away record (1 vs 1.3 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match)
+0.59
+0.59
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 2
    Austin with Christian Ramirez: 1.4 goals/90 min. Without: 4 goals/90 min (5 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Toronto with Deandre Kerr : 2.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.6 goals/90 min (4 of 7 games)

  • 4
    Toronto: scored only after the break in 3 of 7 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

28%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Toronto is predicted to win at home with a 49% probability by the mathematical model
  • Toronto's current form, with 3 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games, is significantly better than Austin's (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses)
  • Toronto shows strong offensive play with an average of 5.2 shots on target in the last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Austin concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game
  • Austin averaged only 2.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Toronto hosts Austin in a Major League Soccer match on April 18, 2026, 7:00 PM. Toronto is in 6th place with 11 points. Austin is in 12th place with 6 points. Toronto aims to solidify its position in the upper half of the table. Austin is fighting to catch up with the midfield of the league

Form

Toronto's form is strong with WDWWD. This reflects 3 wins and 2 draws from their last 5 matches. Toronto recently drew 1-1 against Cincinnati. Austin shows poor form with LLDDL. They recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in their last 5 games. Their last result was a 1-2 loss against LA Galaxy. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Toronto averages 1.43 goals scored per game and concedes 1.57 goals this season. At home, the average is 1.4 goals scored and 1 goal conceded per home game. They kept 1 clean sheet throughout the season. Austin averages 1.14 goals scored and concedes 1.57 goals per game. Away, their average is 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 goals conceded per away game. They kept 2 clean sheets this season. Both teams scored in 5 of their season games, and for Austin, this was also 5 times

Head-to-Head

Historically, there has been 1 head-to-head match between Toronto and Austin. Toronto won this single game. Toronto scored 2 goals, while Austin scored 1 goal. The last encounter ended on September 14, 2024, with a 2-1 victory for Toronto. Toronto has recently dominated this fixture

Key Players

Toronto's offense is led by Dåniel Sallói, who contributed 2 goals and 1 assist this season. In his last 5 games, he scored 2 goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.01. Alonso Coello shows rising form with an average rating of 7.55 in his last 5 games and 1 assist this season. José Cifuentes is also a key player with 1 goal this season and 1 goal in his last 5 games, with an average rating of 6.99 in the last 5 matches. For Austin, Myrto Uzuni is an important offensive force with 2 goals and 1 assist this season. He scored 1 goal in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.76. Facundo Torres contributed 3 assists this season and achieved an average rating of 6.95 in his last 5 games. Jon Bell has scored 1 season goal and shown stable form with 1 goal in his last 5 games with an average rating of 6.91

Goalkeepers

Luka Gavran is Toronto's goalkeeper and has a season average rating of 6.6. He kept 1 clean sheet. Brad Stuver is Austin's goalkeeper with a season average rating of 7.28. He achieved 2 clean sheets

Influences

Toronto scores an average of 1.4 goals at home and concedes 1 goal per game. Austin concedes an average of 2.33 goals per away game

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