šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Austin - Colorado Rapids

09/10/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Austin
1.1
Total xG
2.0
Colorado Rapids
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

15%

1:0

13%

0:1

10%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
AUSCR

Austin

Attack weakness (0.67x league average)
-0.95
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.02

Colorado Rapids

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-0.82
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.18
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.04
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Rafael Navarro not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists)
Georgi Minoungou on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 76% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')

  • 3
    Austin: 9 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Colorado Rapids: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

34%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

62%

Under 1.5

38%

Over 2.5

33%

Under 2.5

67%

Over 3.5

15%

Under 3.5

85%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

66%

Both Score

Yes

42%

No

58%

Key Factors
  • Struggling away offense: Colorado Rapids' goal production has slowed down averaging 0.8 goals recently compared to their 1.4 season average
  • Possession dominance: Austin controlled matches recently averaging 55.2% possession and recording 4.6 shots on target
  • Defensive discrepancy: Austin concedes only 0.92 goals at home while Colorado allows 3.14 goals per game on the road
Risk Factors
  • Vulnerable away defense: Colorado Rapids concede an average of 3.14 goals per away game
  • Low offensive threat: Colorado Rapids averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Limited data coverage regarding local weather conditions for this match
Overview

Austin (14th place, 25 points) host Colorado Rapids (8th place, 31 points) at the Q2 Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 10, 2026, 2:30 AM

The model calculates a home win probability of 39%

The mathematical prediction estimates 1.14 goals for the hosts and 0.90 goals for the visitors

Form

Austin's form is stable with LWDWD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Most recently the home side recorded a 1-1 draw against SJ Earthquakes

Colorado Rapids travel with a form of WWLWL (3 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses)

The visitors lost their last match 0-3 against Columbus Crew

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Austin scored 29 goals and conceded 42 goals this season

At home Austin's defense is more stable conceding an average of 0.92 goals per game

Colorado Rapids scored 31 goals and conceded 31 goals in 23 matches

Away from home the Rapids struggle defensively conceding an average of 3.14 goals per match

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches overall

Colorado Rapids won 3 times, Austin won 2 times with no draws

The last direct duel ended in a 1-0 win for Colorado Rapids on August 2, 2026

Key Players

For Austin Facundo Torres stands out with 3 goals and 5 assists

Ervin Torres stabilizes the midfield with a season rating of 6.82

Guilherme Biro has already scored 3 goals this season for the hosts

For Colorado Rapids Paxten Aaronson leads the team with 4 goals and 5 assists

Reggie Cannon contributed 2 goals from defense recently

Youssef Maziz recorded 2 assists in 5 appearances

Not nominated: Rafael Navarro (10 goals/3 assists), Georgi Minoungou (0 goals/2 assists)

Goalkeepers

Austin relies on goalkeeper Brad Stuver with a season rating of 7.16 and 4 clean sheets

On the other side Nicolas Hansen starts for Colorado Rapids with a season rating of 7.01

Influences

Austin utilizes home advantage on grass at the Q2 Stadium with 4 clean sheets

The historical venue stats show an average of 2.8 total goals per match

Colorado Rapids struggle on the road on natural grass surfaces

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.