Match report →
Austin – Colorado Rapids1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Austin
1.14
Total xG
2.04
Colorado Rapids
0.90
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Austin | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.67x league average) | −0.95 | |
| Attack weakness (0.45x league average) | −0.82 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.18 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Rafael Navarro not in squad (10 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Georgi Minoungou on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 76% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Struggling away offense: Colorado Rapids' goal production has slowed down averaging 0.8 goals recently compared to their 1.4 season average
- Possession dominance: Austin controlled matches recently averaging 55.2% possession and recording 4.6 shots on target
- Defensive discrepancy: Austin concedes only 0.92 goals at home while Colorado allows 3.14 goals per game on the road
Risks
- Vulnerable away defense: Colorado Rapids concede an average of 3.14 goals per away game
- Low offensive threat: Colorado Rapids averaged only 3.0 shots on target in recent matches
- Limited data coverage regarding local weather conditions for this match
All probabilities
Result
Austin39%
Draw34%
Colorado Rapids27%
Double chance
Austin or draw73%
Colorado Rapids or draw61%
No draw66%
Goals
Over 1.562%
Under 1.538%
Over 2.533%
Under 2.567%
Over 3.515%
Under 3.585%
Both teams score
Yes42%
No58%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
15%
1:0
13%
0:1
10%
2:0
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Austin: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')
- Austin: 9 of 23 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: 2.8 cards per game (31 yellows, 3 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Austin 3-4-3 · Colorado Rapids 4-3-3
Austin
- 1 B. Stuver
- 3 M. Desler
- 15 J. Bell
- 29 Guilherme Biro
- 30 J. Rosales Erazo
- 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
- 14 B. Sabovic
- 17 J. Gallagher
- 11 F. Torres Pérez
- 9 B. Vázquez Toledo
- 38 E. Torres
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 4 R. Cannon
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 88 Y. Maziz
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 32 D. Phillip
- 77 D. Yapi
- 10 P. Aaronson
Substitutes
- 77 P. Płacheta
- 4 B. Hines-Ike
- 5 O. Svatok
- 12 D. Las
- 23 Ž. Kolmanič
- 32 M. Burton
- 35 M. Đorđević
- 21 C. Ramírez
- 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 12 J. Atencio
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 99 J. Travis
- 33 K. Thompson
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 61 B. Dowd
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