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San Diego – LA Galaxy3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
1.60
Total xG
2.80
LA Galaxy
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Marcus Ingvartsen not in squad (11 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 77% available) | ||
| Lucas Sanabria not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- San Diego dominated the historical head-to-head record with 2 wins from 2 meetings
- The hosts boast a strong offensive record at home, averaging 1.8 goals per game
- Mathematical models favor San Diego with a 45% probability of winning at home
Risks
- Not in the lineup for San Diego: Marcus Ingvartsen (11 goals, 3 assists on season average)
- LA Galaxy must play without starting goalkeeper J. Marcinkowski due to a Red Card Suspension
- Limited data availability regarding the weather conditions for this match
All probabilities
Result
San Diego45%
Draw28%
LA Galaxy27%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Double chance
San Diego or draw73%
LA Galaxy or draw55%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy: 2.8 cards per game (30 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
- LA Galaxy: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)
- San Diego: 6 of 17 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
San Diego 4-3-3 · LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 26 M. Duah
- 32 I. Murphy
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 20 A. Godoy
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 8 O. Valakari
- 99 M. Achouri
LA Galaxy
- 1 N. Mićović
- 26 H. Miller
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 3 J. Aude
- 15 J. Haak
- 16 I. Parente
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 18 M. Reus
- 11 H. Lozano Bahena
- 7 K. Furuhashi
Substitutes
- 18 D. Ferree
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 77 A. Mighten
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 9 L. Morgan
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 14 J. Nelson
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 27 E. Thommy
- 21 R. Taylor
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 76 T.Elgersma
- 88 M. Vanney
- 41 S. Conlon
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