Match report →
Dallas – Sporting KC4 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Dallas
1.65
Total xG
2.38
Sporting KC
0.73
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Dallas | Sporting KC |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.85 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Santiago Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sebastien Ibeagha on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Dejan Joveljić not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Calvin Harris on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Shapi Suleymanov on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jake Davis not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 56% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Weakened visitors: Without Dejan Joveljić, Calvin Harris, Shapi Suleymanov, and Jake Davis only 47% of Sporting KC's typical starting goals threat is available
- Form gap: Dallas looks more stable with 2 wins in their last 5 games compared to Sporting KC's 4 defeats
- Away struggles: Sporting KC concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away match
Risks
- Dallas defense: The home side concedes an average of 1.68 goals per game
- Inoffensive guests: Sporting KC averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Missing squad depth: Over 50% of goals threat is missing for the visitors due to key absences
All probabilities
Result
Dallas58%
Draw27%
Sporting KC15%
Double chance
Dallas or draw85%
Sporting KC or draw42%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
1:0
14%
1:1
13%
2:0
13%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
4:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sporting KC: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Sporting KC: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Dallas: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Dallas: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')
Lineups
Dallas 3-5-2 · Sporting KC 4-4-2
Dallas
- 40 J. Sirois
- 18 S. Moore
- 32 N. Norris
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 14 H. Johansson
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 23 L. Farrington
- 9 P. Musa
Sporting KC
- 30 S. Cleveland
- 13 J. Reynolds
- 3 M. Castillo Mosquera
- 5 O. Blorian
- 18 E. Karic
- 11 A. Inácio da Silva
- 4 L. Johnsen
- 20 K. Agyabeng
- 7 O. Capemba
- 17 S. Afrifa
- 19 T. Calheira
Substitutes
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 12 C. Cappis
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 28 S. Sarver
- 30 M. Collodi
- 24 J. Torquato
- 10 S. Moreno
- 33 C. Holstad
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 29 S. Garfield-Reid
- 1 J. Pulskamp
- 15 J. Miller
- 16 J. Bartlett
- 28 W. Meyer
- 57 D. Borges da Silva
- 93 M. Suleymanov
- 99 J. Reid
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