🇺🇸

Major League Soccer

Dallas - Sporting KC

09/06/2026, 12:30 AM

5 : 3
Expected Goals
Dallas
1.6
Total xG
2.4
Sporting KC
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

14%

1:1

13%

2:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
DALSK

Dallas

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.40
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 15, 10 places gap)
+0.08
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.02
Santiago Moreno on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Sebastien Ibeagha on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

Sporting KC

Attack weakness (0.57x league average)
-0.85
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.4 vs 0.9 season average)
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 5, 10 places gap)
-0.08
Dejan Joveljić not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
Calvin Harris on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Shapi Suleymanov on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Jake Davis not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
56% of goal output missing (only 47% available)
Weak away record (0.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Sporting KC: opponent scores first in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Sporting KC: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Dallas: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 5
    Dallas: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Weakened visitors: Without Dejan Joveljić, Calvin Harris, Shapi Suleymanov, and Jake Davis only 47% of Sporting KC's typical starting goals threat is available
  • Form gap: Dallas looks more stable with 2 wins in their last 5 games compared to Sporting KC's 4 defeats
  • Away struggles: Sporting KC concedes an average of 3.67 goals per away match
Risk Factors
  • Dallas defense: The home side concedes an average of 1.68 goals per game
  • Inoffensive guests: Sporting KC averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Missing squad depth: Over 50% of goals threat is missing for the visitors due to key absences
Overview

Dallas hosts Sporting KC at the Toyota Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 6, 2026, 2:30 AM

Dallas sits in 5th place with 34 points

Sporting KC travels as the bottom team in 15th place with 15 points

Clear favorite role for the home side

Form

Dallas form: DWWLD (2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss)

Sporting KC form: LLDLL (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses)

Dallas earned 8 points from their last 5 matches

Sporting KC is winless in their last 5 games

Statistics

Dallas scores an average of 1.86 goals and concedes 1.68 goals per match

Sporting KC averages 0.91 goals scored and 2.45 goals conceded

Away from home Sporting KC is extremely vulnerable conceding 3.67 goals per game

Dallas scores an average of 1.8 goals per home match

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in the database

Dallas leads the record with 3 wins to 1 win for Sporting KC

The last direct meeting ended 4-2 for Dallas on June 15, 2025

A total of 17 goals were scored in these matchups

Key Players

Petar Musa has scored 16 goals and provided 3 assists

Logan Farrington contributed 7 goals and 2 assists

Joaquín Valiente stands out with 7 assists and 1 goal

Stephen Afrifa scored twice with 1 assist for the visitors

Capita has registered 2 goals and 1 assist

Taylor Calheira has provided 1 assist so far

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Sirois starts in goal for Dallas with an average rating of 7.15

Stefan Cleveland is in goal for Sporting KC with a rating of 6.55

Sporting KC has kept 0 clean sheets this season

Dallas has recorded 4 clean sheets so far

Influences

The match is played on natural grass at Toyota Stadium

Historical venue stats show an average of 3.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.