Match report →
St. Louis City – Dallas3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.49
Total xG
2.47
Dallas
0.98
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.43 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Eduard Löwen not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lukas MacNaughton on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home defensive strength: St. Louis City concedes an average of only 0.85 goals per game at the Energizer Park
- Positive home trend: St. Louis City is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws
- Control through possession: St. Louis City averaged 55.8% possession in their recent matches
Risks
- Defensive struggles: Dallas conceded an average of 2.5 goals in their recent matches
- Low offensive threat: Dallas averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their recent matches
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City47%
Draw29%
Dallas23%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw77%
Dallas or draw53%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
11%
0:0
10%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Dallas: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- St. Louis City: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)
- Dallas: 3 cards per game (36 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-2-1 · Dallas 3-4-2-1
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 99 J. Orozco
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 24 D. Edelman
- 8 C. Durkin
- 14 T. Totland
- 77 S. Jeong
- 23 A. Măţan
- 11 S. Becher
Dallas
- 40 J. Sirois
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 18 S. Moore
- 14 H. Johansson
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 10 S. Moreno
- 9 P. Musa
Substitutes
- 19 C. Holse
- 3 T. Reid-Brown
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 59 M. Joyner
- 4 M. Fall
- 91 Z. Zengue
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 12 C. Cappis
- 23 L. Farrington
- 28 S. Sarver
- 30 M. Collodi
- 32 N. Norris
- 24 J. Torquato
- 33 C. Holstad
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