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Major League Soccer

St. Louis City - Dallas

08/30/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
St. Louis City
1.5
Total xG
2.5
Dallas
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

11%

0:0

10%

2:0

9%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SLCDAL

St. Louis City

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Eduard Löwen not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
Lukas MacNaughton on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 83% available)

Dallas

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average)
-0.15
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Dallas: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Dallas: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)

  • 4
    St. Louis City: 2.8 cards per game (32 yellows, 2 reds in 12 games)

  • 5
    Dallas: 3 cards per game (36 yellows, 0 reds in 12 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

29%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Home defensive strength: St. Louis City concedes an average of only 0.85 goals per game at the Energizer Park
  • Positive home trend: St. Louis City is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws
  • Control through possession: St. Louis City averaged 55.8% possession in their recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Defensive struggles: Dallas conceded an average of 2.5 goals in their recent matches
  • Low offensive threat: Dallas averaged only 3.4 shots on target in their recent matches
Overview

St. Louis City hosts Dallas at the Energizer Park

Both teams are tied in the standings with 33 points each

St. Louis City occupies 6th place and Dallas sits in 5th place

Major League Soccer match on August 30, 2026, 11:00 PM

Form

St. Louis City is in stable form with a "WDWDW" record

The home team achieved 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Dallas arrives with an "LDWWL" form and recently suffered a defeat

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Louis City averages 1.38 goals scored per home match

The hosts concede an average of only 0.85 goals at home

Dallas scores an average of 1.82 goals per away game

The away side concedes an average of 1.64 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Dallas leads the record with 2 wins and 3 draws

The last encounter ended in a 1-1 draw on April 12, 2026

Goal difference stands at 2:7 in favor of Dallas

Key Players

Simon Becher has scored 5 goals and provided 4 assists for St. Louis City

Tomas Totland has contributed 1 goal and 3 assists for the home side

Daniel Ethan Edelman adds 2 goals and 2 assists from midfield

Petar Musa is Dallas's top threat with 16 goals and 2 assists

JoaquĂ­n Valiente stands out for the visitors with 1 goal and 6 assists

Santiago Moreno has registered 2 goals and 2 assists for the away team

Not squad selected: Eduard Löwen (3 goals, 2 assists) and Lukas MacNaughton (1 goal, 1 assist)

Goalkeepers

Roman BĂŒrki played 19 matches in goal for St. Louis City

Jonathan Sirois has 7 appearances for Dallas with a strong average rating of 7.29

St. Louis City recorded 3 clean sheets this season

Dallas achieved 4 clean sheets in the current campaign

Influences

The match will be played on grass surface at the Energizer Park

St. Louis City benefits from home advantage, conceding only 11 goals in 13 home matches

Historical venue data shows an average of 2.6 goals per game

The mathematical model predicts a 47% home win probability and 1.49 expected home goals

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