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Major League Soccer

Real Salt Lake - Colorado Rapids

05/17/2026, 01:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Real Salt Lake
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Colorado Rapids
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
RSLCR

Real Salt Lake

Attack weakness (0.8x league average)
-0.94
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.51
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.43
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.16
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 10, 6 places gap)
+0.04
Diego Luna not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Morgan Guilavogui on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)

Colorado Rapids

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-0.65
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.46
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.43
Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.33
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 4, 6 places gap)
-0.06
Darren Yapi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Dante Sealy on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.77
+0.77
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids with Wayne Frederick: 2.1 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Salt Lake with Griffin Dillon: 5.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (4 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Colorado Rapids: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Real Salt Lake: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Colorado Rapids: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

52%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Real Salt Lake with a probability of 48%
  • Real Salt Lake's strong home offense (Avg. 2.00 goals) meets Colorado Rapids' vulnerable away defense (Avg. 2.60 goals conceded)
  • Real Salt Lake averaged 6.2 shots on target recently, while Colorado Rapids only had 2.2 shots on target
Risk Factors
  • Real Salt Lake has only 3 days since the last match
  • Colorado Rapids has only 3 days since the last match
  • Colorado Rapids averaged 2.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Real Salt Lake (4th place, 22 points) host Colorado Rapids (10th place, 16 points) in Major League Soccer

The match takes place on May 17, 2026, 2:30 AM

Real Salt Lake aims to extend their lead in the standings, while Colorado Rapids seek to climb the table

Form

Real Salt Lake's form in their last five matches (LLWLW) shows 2 wins and 3 losses

Their last result was a 3-0 win against Houston Dynamo

Colorado Rapids' form in their last five matches (DLLLW) includes 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses

They won their last game 1-0 against Minnesota United

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Real Salt Lake has averaged 1.92 goals scored per game and conceded 1.42 goals per game this season

At home, Real Salt Lake is offensively strong with an average of 2.00 goals per home game and defensively stable with only 0.88 goals conceded per home game

Real Salt Lake's matches saw both teams score in 8 games, and 9 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Colorado Rapids averaged 1.77 goals scored per game and conceded 1.54 goals

Away from home, the Rapids conceded an average of 2.60 goals per away game and scored 1.80 away goals

The Rapids had both teams score in 7 games, and 7 games ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Real Salt Lake recorded 2 wins, Colorado Rapids had 3 wins, and there were no draws

Both teams scored 9 goals in these encounters

Real Salt Lake won the last direct encounter 1-0 on October 5, 2025

The Colorado Rapids have been slightly more dominant in recent direct encounters

Key Players

For Real Salt Lake, Zavier Gozo (5 goals, 3 assists) and Sergi Solans (5 goals, 2 assists) are key attacking players

Juan Manuel Sanabria has contributed 3 assists

Not nominated are Diego Luna (4G/1A) and Morgan Guilavogui (1G/3A)

For Colorado Rapids, Rafael Navarro is the standout player with 8 goals and 3 assists

Paxten Aaronson (3 goals, 2 assists) and Kosi Thompson (2 goals) are also important

Not nominated are Darren Yapi (3G/2A) and Dante Sealy (0G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Real Salt Lake's goalkeeper Rafael Cabral kept 2 clean sheets in 12 appearances

For Colorado Rapids, Nicolas Hansen played in 4 matches and has not yet completed a game without conceding a goal

Influences

Real Salt Lake exhibits a strong offense at home with an average of 2.00 goals and a solid defense with an average of 0.88 goals conceded

Colorado Rapids show a vulnerable defense away from home with an average of 2.60 goals conceded per game

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