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Major League Soccer

St. Louis City - SJ Earthquakes

04/26/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
St. Louis City
1.3
Total xG
2.8
SJ Earthquakes
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SLCSE

St. Louis City

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-1.12
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.69
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.31
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.20
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.10
Strong home record (1.5 vs 0.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

SJ Earthquakes

Defensive strength (0.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.83
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.34
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.2 goals/match)
+0.23
Rising form (3.2 vs 2.4 season average)
+0.23
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.09
Ousseni Bouda on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Niko Tsakiris on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Beau Leroux on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.4 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City with Lukas MacNaughton: 4.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 6 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (86% win rate)

  • 3
    St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 4
    St. Louis City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 0 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    SJ Earthquakes with Dave Romney: 8.8 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

29%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Table position and form: SJ Earthquakes are league leaders with 5 consecutive wins, while St. Louis City is in the lower half of the league and achieved only 1 win in their last 5 games
  • Offensive strength: SJ Earthquakes average 2.44 goals per game, while St. Louis City only scores 0.88 goals per game
  • Defensive solidity: SJ Earthquakes concede only 0.44 goals per game, whereas St. Louis City allows 1.63 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • SJ Earthquakes with only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • CRITICAL for SJ Earthquakes: Only 66% of usual starting XI goal production available, Ousseni Bouda, Niko Tsakiris, Beau Leroux, Jamar Ricketts are not nominated
Overview

St. Louis City (14th place, 6 points) host SJ Earthquakes (1st place, 24 points) in Major League Soccer. The match will take place on April 26, 2026, 2:30 AM. The league leaders face a team located in the lower half of the table.

Form

St. Louis City's form across all competitions is LWDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches. Their last result was a loss.

SJ Earthquakes' form across all competitions is WWWWW. The team achieved 5 wins and 0 draws in their last 5 matches. The team is on a 5-game winning streak.

Statistics

St. Louis City averages 0.88 goals scored per game this season and concedes 1.63 goals per game. In their home games, they scored 0.8 goals and conceded 0.6 goals on average. They have kept 0 clean sheets this season.

SJ Earthquakes show strong offensive and defensive performance with an average of 2.44 goals scored per game and only 0.44 goals conceded per game. Away from home, they averaged 2.25 goals scored and conceded only 0.5 goals. They kept 5 clean sheets this season.

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head matches between these two teams, St. Louis City dominated. They won all 4 games, while SJ Earthquakes recorded no wins. St. Louis City scored a total of 9 goals compared to 3 conceded. The last encounter ended with a 3-1 victory for St. Louis City on September 21, 2025. St. Louis City has been the more dominant side in recent encounters.

Key Players

For St. Louis City, Marcel Hartel (2 goals, 0 assists, avg 7.50 rating), Simon Becher (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 6.78 rating), and Chris Durkin (1 goal, 0 assists, avg 7.01 rating) are important players.

For SJ Earthquakes, Preston Judd (5 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.06 rating), Timo Werner (2 goals, 3 assists, avg 7.24 rating), and Daniel Munie (2 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.15 rating) stand out.

Goalkeepers

Roman Bürki is the goalkeeper for St. Louis City, who have kept 0 clean sheets this season. Earl Edwards Jr. is listed as goalkeeper for SJ Earthquakes, who have kept 5 clean sheets this season.

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