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Major League Soccer

Seattle Sounders - SJ Earthquakes

05/14/2026, 01:30 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Seattle Sounders
1.6
Total xG
2.8
SJ Earthquakes
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SSSE

Seattle Sounders

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-1.25
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.39
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.07
Jordan Morris on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

SJ Earthquakes

Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.62
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.37
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.17
Rising form (2.8 vs 2.2 season average)
+0.17
Preston Judd on the bench (8 goals, 2 assists)
Timo Werner not in squad (4 goals, 3 assists)
Ousseni Bouda on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Niko Tsakiris not in squad (2 goals, 4 assists)
Beau Leroux on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Daniel Munie on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
80% of goal output missing (only 27% available)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Seattle Sounders: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Seattle Sounders with Peter Kingston: 5.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes with Nick Fernandez: 10.2 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 5
    SJ Earthquakes: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

44%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

56%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical prediction sees Seattle as favorites with 44% and expects 1.58 home goals
  • SJ Earthquakes are severely weakened and play without key players like Preston Judd and Timo Werner, which reduces their goal threat to just 27%
  • Despite the absences, SJ Earthquakes show good offensive form, averaging 2.8 goals in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Both teams drew their last two games, which could indicate a tight match
  • The goalkeepers of both teams, Andrew Thomas and Daniel, show a declining form trend
Overview

Seattle Sounders (4th place, 21 points) host SJ Earthquakes (1st place, 29 points) in Major League Soccer

Match on May 14, 2026, 3:30 AM

This top match brings together two teams from the upper half of the table, with SJ Earthquakes leading the standings

Form

Seattle Sounders show a form of WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses) from their last five games

Their last two matches both ended in a draw

SJ Earthquakes also show strong form with WWWDD (3 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses)

The visitors also drew their last two games

Both teams show a positive form trend according to advanced stats

Statistics

Seattle Sounders scored an average of 1.4 goals and conceded 0.6 goals per game this season

At home, these values improve to an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded

SJ Earthquakes appear offensively stronger with an average of 2.25 goals scored and 0.67 goals conceded per game

Away from home, SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.17 goals and concede 0.83 goals

Seattle kept 5 clean sheets, SJ Earthquakes also kept 5 clean sheets

Head-to-Head

In the last five direct encounters, Seattle Sounders won two, SJ Earthquakes won one, and two ended in a draw

Seattle scored 9 goals in these matches, while SJ Earthquakes scored 8 goals

The last encounter on March 15, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Seattle Sounders

Key Players

For Seattle Sounders, JesĆŗs Ferreira is a key player with 1 goal and 4 assists, his form is stable

Albert RusnƔk contributes to the offense with 2 goals and 3 assists, his form is also stable

Cristian RoldƔn shows rising form with 3 goals and 1 assist

For SJ Earthquakes, Paul Marie stands out with 4 assists and shows rising form

Jack Skahan scored 2 goals, his form is stable

Jack Jasinski scored 1 goal, his form is stable

Goalkeepers

Andrew Thomas, goalkeeper for Seattle Sounders, has recorded 5 clean sheets this season

His form trend shows a declining tendency

Daniel, goalkeeper for SJ Earthquakes, kept 5 clean sheets

His form trend also shows a declining tendency

Influences

Seattle Sounders show a solid performance at home with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 goals conceded

SJ Earthquakes score an average of 2.17 goals away and concede 0.83 goals

This suggests a tendency towards an offensive away team

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