Major League Soccer
San Diego - Austin
05/14/2026, 01:30 AM
Expected Goals
2.0
3.2
1.2
1:1
11%2:1
10%2:0
8%3:1
6%1:2
6%What influences the xG?
San Diego
Austin
League
The Lab
- 1Austin: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- 2Austin with Brendan Hines-Ike: 1.5 goals/90 min. Without: 4.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3San Diego with Amahl Pellegrino: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4San Diego: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Austin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
24%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
63%
Under 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
76%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 54% for San Diego
- San Diego shows stability in home games with an average of 1.62 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded, whereas Austin displays defensive weaknesses away, conceding 2.43 goals per away game on average
- Austin demonstrates a positive form trend in goal production, averaging 2.0 goals in recent matches compared to a season average of 1.6 goals, while San Diego's recent goal production has declined to 1.2 goals from a season average of 1.7 goals
Risk Factors
- Austin exhibits significant defensive issues in away games, conceding an average of 2.43 goals per away match
- San Diego's goal production has recently declined to 1.2 goals per game, below their season average of 1.7 goals
- San Diego recorded an average of only 3.4 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
San Diego (12th place, 13 points) hosts Austin (10th place, 14 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 14, 2026, 2:30 AM. Both teams are in the lower mid-table and urgently need points to improve their league position.
Form
San Diego shows poor form in their last five games with LLLDD, equating to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses. Their last result was a 1-1 draw against Seattle Sounders. Austin's form is DLWWD, meaning 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss in their last five matches. Their last game ended in a 2-2 draw against Minnesota United. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
San Diego scores an average of 1.67 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per game this season. In home matches, the average is 1.62 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded. The team has kept 3 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 7 matches, and 8 matches had over 2.5 goals. Austin scores an average of 1.5 goals and concedes 1.75 goals per game. Away from home, the average is 1.43 goals scored and 2.43 goals conceded. Austin has recorded 4 clean sheets. Both teams scored in 8 matches, and 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Head-to-Head
The 2 direct encounters have shown an even record. San Diego won 1 match and Austin also won 1 match, with no draws. San Diego scored a total of 3 goals, while Austin scored 2. The last meeting on June 1, 2025, ended in a 2-0 victory for San Diego.
Key Players
For San Diego, Marcus Ingvartsen (8 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.28 rating) and Anders Dreyer (5 goals, 5 assists, avg 7.60 rating) are crucial offensively. Onni Valakari contributes with 3 goals and 2 assists. For Austin, Myrto Uzuni stands out with 5 goals and 1 assist (avg 7.08 rating), with his form currently rising. Facundo Torres provided 1 goal and 5 assists (avg 7.27 rating). Jon Bell contributed 2 goals (avg 6.56 rating). Not nominated: Christian Ramirez (4G/1A)
Goalkeepers
San Diego relies on Duran Ferree, who has kept 3 clean sheets this season and has an average rating of 6.88. For Austin, Brad Stuver is in goal, having kept 4 clean sheets and achieved an average rating of 7.37.
Influences
San Diego shows higher efficiency in home games with an average of 1.62 goals scored and only 1.0 goals conceded. Austin, on the other hand, displays defensive weaknesses away from home, conceding an average of 2.43 goals.