Major League Soccer
Austin - Sporting KC
05/17/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.6
2.5
0.9
1:1
13%1:0
12%2:0
11%0:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Austin
Sporting KC
League
The Lab
- 1Austin: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- 2Sporting KC: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 3Sporting KC with Justin Reynolds: 2.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- 4Austin: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- 5Sporting KC: 73% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
54%
Draw
28%
Away Win
18%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
46%
Under 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
82%
Away or Draw
46%
No Draw
72%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Austin with a probability of 54%
- Home Strength vs. Away Weakness: Austin's solid home defense (Avg. 0.67 goals conceded) meets Sporting KC's extremely vulnerable away defense (Avg. 7.0 goals conceded)
- Head-to-Head Record: Austin has won three out of four direct encounters and has been dominant in recent matchups
Risk Factors
- Short Recovery Time: Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Sporting KC's Dire Away Defense: The team concedes an average of 7.0 goals per away game
Overview
Austin (13th place, 14 points) will host Sporting KC (15th place, 8 points) in Major League Soccer on May 17, 2026, 1:30 AM. Both teams are in the lower half of the table. The match is crucial for improving their league standing.
Form
Austin's form in the league is LWWDL (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses). Their recent results include a 0-5 loss against San Diego and a 2-2 draw against Minnesota United. Sporting KC's form is LLDLW (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses), with a recent 3-1 win against LA Galaxy and a 0-6 loss against Portland Timbers. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.
Statistics
Austin averages 1.38 goals scored per game and concedes 2.0 goals per game this season. At home, they average 1.33 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded, with four clean sheets. Sporting KC averages 0.92 goals scored and 2.75 goals conceded per game. Away from home, these figures are 1.0 goal scored and an extremely high 7.0 goals conceded, with zero away clean sheets. Austin scores consistently (~1.4 goals per game) with a stable recent form trend. Sporting KC's goal production is faltering (0.8), with their season average at 0.9, indicating a negative trend.
Head-to-Head
In four direct encounters, Austin secured three victories, while Sporting KC won once. There have been no draws. Austin scored six goals, and Sporting KC scored five goals. The last match was a 2-1 win for Austin on September 7, 2025. Austin has dominated recent matchups.
Key Players
For Austin, Myrto Uzuni (5 goals, 1 assist, 3 goals in last 5 games, rising form trend), Facundo Torres (1 goal, 5 assists, 2 assists in last 5 games, stable form trend), and Christian Ramirez (4 goals, 1 assist, 2 goals, 1 assist in last 5 games, stable form trend) are key offensive players. For Sporting KC, Dejan JoveljiÄ (6 goals, 1 assist, 2 goals in last 5 games, stable form trend), Calvin Harris (1 goal, 3 assists, 1 goal, 2 assists in last 5 games, stable form trend), and Capita (1 goal, 0 assists, 1 goal in last 5 games, stable form trend) stand out.
Goalkeepers
Brad Stuver of Austin recorded four clean sheets in 13 season appearances. Sporting KC's Stefan Cleveland kept zero clean sheets in his three appearances.
Influences
Austin demonstrates a strong home defense, conceding an average of 0.67 goals per home game and keeping four clean sheets. In contrast, Sporting KC's away defense is extremely vulnerable, conceding an average of 7.0 goals per away game and failing to keep any away clean sheets.