Major League Soccer
Dallas - St. Louis City
04/12/2026, 12:30 AM
Expected Goals
1.7
2.8
1.2
1:1
13%2:1
10%2:0
8%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Dallas
St. Louis City
League
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
27%
Away Win
25%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
53%
Under 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
31%
Under 3.5
69%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
75%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Dallas' home strength: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 48% probability and 1.66 expected home goals
- Offensive matchup: Dallas' strong offense (Avg. 2.5 home goals) meets St. Louis City's extremely vulnerable away defense (Avg. 5.0 goals conceded per away game)
- Form difference: Dallas is in better form with 2 wins and 2 draws in the last 5 games, while St. Louis City recorded 3 losses and only 1 win
Risk Factors
- JoaquĂn Valiente is not nominated for Dallas, which could mean 37.5% of the usual assists are missing
- St. Louis City's away defense is extremely vulnerable, conceding an average of 5.0 goals per away game
Overview
Dallas (6th place, 11 points) hosts St. Louis City (13th place, 5 points) in Major League Soccer. The match will take place on April 12, 2026, 1:30 AM. Dallas enters this encounter as the favorite, aiming to consolidate its position in the upper half of the table.
Form
Dallas shows a form of DLDWW in their last five matches
This corresponds to 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss
St. Louis City has a form of LLLWD
This means 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last five games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Dallas averages 2.33 goals scored per game and concedes 1.5 goals
In home games, they score 2.5 goals and concede 2 goals per match
St. Louis City averages 0.83 goals scored and concedes 1.33 goals
Away from home, St. Louis City scores 1 goal and concedes an alarming 5 goals per game
Dallas kept 2 clean sheets, while St. Louis City has yet to keep one
For Dallas, over 2.5 goals were scored in 4 matches, for St. Louis City in 1 match
Both teams scored in 3 matches for Dallas and also in 3 matches for St. Louis City
Head-to-Head
In the 4 previous head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Dallas and 2 draws
St. Louis City could not win any of the matches
Dallas scored a total of 6 goals, while St. Louis City managed 1 goal
The last encounter ended in a 1:1 draw on September 7, 2025
Dallas has been the more dominant side in recent direct confrontations
Key Players
Dallas:
Petar Musa is a key player with 7 goals and 0 assists in 6 season appearances with an average rating of 7.79
Logan Farrington scored 4 goals and 1 assist in 6 appearances with a rating of 7.31
Osaze Urhoghide contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, his rating is 7.15
St. Louis City:
Marcel Hartel scored 2 goals and 0 assists in 5 season appearances with an average rating of 7.62
Chris Durkin has 1 goal and 0 assists in 6 appearances, his rating is 7.02
Simon Becher contributed 1 goal and 1 assist, his rating is 6.83
Goalkeepers
Michael Collodi of Dallas has recorded 2 clean sheets this season
His average rating is 6.76
Roman BĂŒrki of St. Louis City has not kept any clean sheets this season
His average rating is 6.9
Influences
Dallas shows a clear home advantage, as the team scores an average of 2.5 goals at home
At the same time, they concede an average of 2 goals in home matches