šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - St. Louis City

09/10/2026, 02:30 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.4
Total xG
2.7
St. Louis City
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PTSLC

Portland Timbers

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.09
Kevin Kelsy not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 89% available)

St. Louis City

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.25
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.25
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.02
Simon Becher on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists)
Conrad Wallem not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Lukas MacNaughton on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    St. Louis City: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 2
    Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    St. Louis City: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    St. Louis City: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 5
    Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

29%

Away Win

34%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

66%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Tactical shooting advantage: St. Louis City averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Portland's average of 3.8
  • Offensive upward trend: Both teams are currently scoring more frequently than their season average (Portland 2.2 vs. 1.9; St. Louis 2.4 vs. 1.6)
  • Tight matchup: The mathematical model estimates a 37% probability for a home win and a 34% probability for an away win
Risk Factors
  • St. Louis City absences: Simon Becher, Conrad Wallem, and Lukas MacNaughton are missing, leaving only 63% of the usual starting strength available
  • Portland Timbers absence: The unselected Kevin Kelsy weakens the team, which starts with 90% of its regular lineup strength
  • Defensive vulnerability: Portland Timbers concede an average of 1.87 goals per match this season
Overview

Portland Timbers host St. Louis City at Providence Park

Major League Soccer match on September 10, 2026, 4:30 AM

Portland is in 7th place with 31 points

St. Louis City occupies 5th place with 37 points

Form

Portland shows a form of LWDLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 matches

St. Louis City remains unbeaten in 5 games with a form of WDWDW

The visitors achieved 3 wins and 2 draws in their recent run

Statistics

Portland scores an average of 1.91 goals and concedes 1.87 per match

Both teams scored in 18 of Portland's 23 games this season

St. Louis City averages 1.57 goals scored and 1.35 goals conceded

Portland's home attack is productive with 1.93 goals per home game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between these teams

Both teams have won 1 game each, with 2 matches ending in a draw

The overall goal record in these direct encounters is even at 7:7

The last match was won 2-1 by St. Louis City

Key Players

Kristoffer Velde has registered 6 goals and 6 assists this season

David Da Costa contributed 3 goals and 7 assists for Portland

Daniel Ethan Edelman has recorded 3 goals and 3 assists for St. Louis City

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis has kept 1 clean sheet for Portland this season

Roman BĆ¼rki has recorded 3 clean sheets for St. Louis City

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at Providence Park

Portland has a strong home record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on turf

Providence Park venue stats show an average of 4.4 goals per match

The mathematical analysis predicts a 57% chance of both teams scoring

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.