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Portland Timbers – St. Louis City2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.40
Total xG
2.75
St. Louis City
1.34
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | St. Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.25 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Kevin Kelsy not in squad (9 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Simon Becher on the bench (7 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Conrad Wallem not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lukas MacNaughton on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 62% available) |
Key factors
- Tactical shooting advantage: St. Louis City averaged 4.8 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Portland's average of 3.8
- Offensive upward trend: Both teams are currently scoring more frequently than their season average (Portland 2.2 vs. 1.9; St. Louis 2.4 vs. 1.6)
- Tight matchup: The mathematical model estimates a 37% probability for a home win and a 34% probability for an away win
Risks
- St. Louis City absences: Simon Becher, Conrad Wallem, and Lukas MacNaughton are missing, leaving only 63% of the usual starting strength available
- Portland Timbers absence: The unselected Kevin Kelsy weakens the team, which starts with 90% of its regular lineup strength
- Defensive vulnerability: Portland Timbers concede an average of 1.87 goals per match this season
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers37%
Draw29%
St. Louis City34%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw66%
St. Louis City or draw63%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Portland Timbers: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 9 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- St. Louis City: 5 of 13 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-3-3 · St. Louis City 3-1-4-2
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 15 E. Miller
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 17 C. Bassett
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 14 V. Janssen
- 99 K. Velde
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 99 J. Orozco
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 21 D. Polvara
- 8 C. Durkin
- 14 T. Totland
- 23 A. Măţan
- 24 D. Edelman
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 77 S. Jeong
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
Substitutes
- 2 J. Waterman
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 23 I. Smith
- 88 G. Guerra
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 26 H. Sulte
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 42 D. Downs
- 19 C. Holse
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 11 S. Becher
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 59 M. Joyner
- 27 F. Fol
- 7 T. Ostrák
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