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LA Galaxy – Los Angeles FC0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
LA Galaxy
1.55
Total xG
2.83
Los Angeles FC
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LA Galaxy | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.32 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Gabriel Pec on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 79% available) | ||
| David Martínez on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Stephen Eustaquio not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad impact: LA Galaxy is without the unlisted Gabriel Pec (5 goals, 4 assists)
- Tactical threat: Los Angeles FC averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Matchup details: LA Galaxy's consistent offense meets a vulnerable away defense conceding 1.5 goals per away game on average
Risks
- Away weakness: Los Angeles FC concedes an average of 1.5 goals per away match
- Form trend in attack: Los Angeles FC's goal scoring has slowed down recently to 1.4 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 1.9
All probabilities
Result
LA Galaxy42%
Draw28%
Los Angeles FC30%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
LA Galaxy or draw70%
Los Angeles FC or draw58%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Los Angeles FC with Nathan Ordaz: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- LA Galaxy: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
LA Galaxy 4-3-3 · Los Angeles FC 4-3-3
LA Galaxy
- 1 N. Mićović
- 2 M. Yamane
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 15 J. Haak
- 14 J. Nelson
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 6 E. Cerrillo
- 22 E. Wynder
- 28 J. Paintsil
- 18 M. Reus
- 27 E. Thommy
Los Angeles FC
- 1 H. Lloris
- 24 R. Hollingshead
- 5 R. Porteous
- 33 A. Long
- 23 Y. Cheberko
- 66 M. Choiniere
- 4 E. Segura Martínez
- 8 M. Delgado
- 18 J. Shaffelburg
- 7 H. Son
- 99 D. Bouanga
Substitutes
- 3 J. Aude
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 24 R. Ramos Jr.
- 26 H. Miller
- 21 R. Taylor
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 16 I. Parente
- 20 C. Rindov
- 12 T. Hasal
- 19 T. Boyd
- 21 R. Raposo
- 30 D. Martínez Morales
- 45 K. Nielsen
- 91 Nkosi Tafari
- 22 J. Terry
- 17 J. Ebobisse
- 40 S. Nava
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