šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

LA Galaxy - Los Angeles FC

07/18/2026, 02:25 AM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
LA Galaxy
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Los Angeles FC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LGLAF

LA Galaxy

Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.32
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
Gabriel Pec on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 79% available)
Strong home record (1.8 vs 1.5 goals/match)

Los Angeles FC

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.14
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.07
David MartĆ­nez on the bench (5 goals, 0 assists)
Timothy Tillman not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Stephen Eustaquio not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 95% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    LA Galaxy: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Los Angeles FC with Nathan Ordaz: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Los Angeles FC: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 5
    LA Galaxy: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

28%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

79%

Under 1.5

21%

Over 2.5

54%

Under 2.5

46%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Squad impact: LA Galaxy is without the unlisted Gabriel Pec (5 goals, 4 assists)
  • Tactical threat: Los Angeles FC averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Matchup details: LA Galaxy's consistent offense meets a vulnerable away defense conceding 1.5 goals per away game on average
Risk Factors
  • Away weakness: Los Angeles FC concedes an average of 1.5 goals per away match
  • Form trend in attack: Los Angeles FC's goal scoring has slowed down recently to 1.4 goals per match compared to their seasonal average of 1.9
Overview

LA Galaxy host Los Angeles FC at the Dignity Health Sports Park

MLS match on July 18, 2026, 4:25 AM

9th-placed LA Galaxy challenges 5th-placed Los Angeles FC

LA Galaxy has 20 points, while the visitors have 24 points

An important derby match in Major League Soccer

Form

LA Galaxy shows a stable trend with a form of DWLWD

In the last 5 games they recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Los Angeles FC recently ended a negative run with a win and a form of DLLLW

The visitors got 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Statistics

LA Galaxy averages 1.47 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game

At home, LA Galaxy averages 1.43 goals scored and 1.14 goals conceded

Los Angeles FC averages 1.60 goals scored and 1.13 goals conceded

LA Galaxy home games feature a 100% BTTS rate this season in evaluated matches

Head-to-Head

Balanced historical record over 5 head-to-head matches

LA Galaxy won 1 game, while Los Angeles FC won 2 games with 2 draws

The goal difference is exactly 11:11

The last meeting ended in a high-scoring 3:3 draw

Key Players

Marco Reus has 4 goals and 5 assists in 15 appearances with a rating of 7.3

Joseph Paintsil recorded 3 goals and 2 assists in 11 games

Lucas Sanabria scored 2 goals and provided 1 assist with a rating of 6.75

Denis Bouanga leads his side with 6 goals and 2 assists in 14 games

Heung-min Son has already contributed 8 assists in 13 matches

Mark Delgado has 1 goal and 1 assist with a rating of 7.09

Goalkeepers

Novak Mićović starts in goal for LA Galaxy

Hugo Lloris guards the net for Los Angeles FC

Hugo Lloris recorded 9 clean sheets this season, while Novak Mićović has none

Influences

LA Galaxy plays on grass at Dignity Health Sports Park

LA Galaxy's home advantage is visible with 1.14 goals conceded per home game compared to 1.75 away

The venue averages 2.6 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.