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Major League Soccer

Colorado Rapids - Dallas

05/24/2026, 01:30 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Colorado Rapids
1.4
Total xG
2.9
Dallas
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
CRDAL

Colorado Rapids

Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.38
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.38
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.09
Hamzat Ojediran on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Kosi Thompson on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Dante Sealy on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Dallas

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.28
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.04
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.01
Petar Musa not in squad (12 goals, 2 assists)
Osaze Urhoghide not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 83% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.75
+0.75
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Colorado Rapids with Wayne Frederick: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Dallas: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

34%

Draw

28%

Away Win

38%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

55%

Under 2.5

45%

Over 3.5

32%

Under 3.5

68%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

62%

Away or Draw

66%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Slight favoritism for Dallas: Mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 38% probability and 1.48 expected goals
  • Better current form of Dallas: Dallas won 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 goals
  • Dallas' strong away record: The team scores an average of 2.0 away goals and concedes only 1.0 goals per game
Risk Factors
  • Colorado Rapids averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
  • Colorado Rapids' goal production has recently stalled with an average of only 0.6 goals, while the season average is 1.9
  • Dallas is missing several key injured players, including top scorer P. Musa (12G/2A)
Overview

Colorado Rapids (11th place, 16 points) host Dallas (5th place, 22 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on May 24, 2026, 3:30 AM. Dallas is currently in a playoff spot, while the Rapids are in the mid-table.

Form

Colorado Rapids show poor form with LLLWL, meaning 1 win and 4 losses in their last 5 games. Their last result was a loss. Dallas, on the other hand, shows better form with LWWLW, which is 3 wins and 2 losses in their last 5 games. Their last result was a win. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Colorado Rapids score an average of 1.71 goals per game and concede 1.57 goals. At home, they score 1.75 goals and concede only 0.88 goals per home game. Dallas score an average of 2.0 goals per game and concede 1.5 goals. Away from home, they are strong with 2.0 goals scored and only 1.0 goals conceded per away game. Colorado Rapids have achieved 3 clean sheets, Dallas also has 3. Both teams scored in 8 of Colorado Rapids' games and in 9 of Dallas's games.

Head-to-Head

In the 4 head-to-head matches so far, Colorado Rapids have 2 wins, Dallas has 1 win, and there has been 1 draw. The goal difference is balanced at 9:9. The last encounter on September 21, 2025, ended in a 3-1 victory for Dallas.

Key Players

For Colorado Rapids, Rafael Navarro (8 goals, 3 assists) and Paxten Aaronson (3 goals, 3 assists) are important attacking players. Darren Yapi (3 goals, 2 assists) complements the offense. For Dallas, Logan Farrington (5 goals, 2 assists) and Patrickson Delgado (2 goals, 0 assists) stand out. Santiago Moreno (1 goal, 1 assist) also contributes to the attacking threat.

Goalkeepers

Colorado Rapids' goalkeeper Nicolas Hansen has an average rating of 7.16 in 5 season appearances. The team has achieved a total of 3 clean sheets. Dallas's goalkeeper Jonathan Sirois has made one appearance this season with an average rating of 7.65. Dallas also recorded 3 clean sheets.

Influences

Colorado Rapids show defensive strength at home, conceding only an average of 0.88 goals per home game. Dallas scores an average of 2.0 goals per away game and concedes only 1.0 goals, indicating good away performance. The provided dataset does not contain information on venue specifics or weather conditions.

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