Match report →
Colorado Rapids – Dallas1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.40
Total xG
2.88
Dallas
1.48
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.38 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Hamzat Ojediran on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kosi Thompson on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Dante Sealy on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Petar Musa not in squad (12 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Osaze Urhoghide not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Slight favoritism for Dallas: Mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 38% probability and 1.48 expected goals
- Better current form of Dallas: Dallas won 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 11 goals
- Dallas' strong away record: The team scores an average of 2.0 away goals and concedes only 1.0 goals per game
Risks
- Colorado Rapids averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
- Colorado Rapids' goal production has recently stalled with an average of only 0.6 goals, while the season average is 1.9
- Dallas is missing several key injured players, including top scorer P. Musa (12G/2A)
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids34%
Draw28%
Dallas38%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw62%
Dallas or draw66%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Colorado Rapids with Wayne Frederick: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Dallas: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1 · Dallas 4-4-1-1
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 4 R. Cannon
- 6 R. Holding
- 22 L. Herrington
- 99 J. Travis
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 12 J. Atencio
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 77 D. Yapi
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
Dallas
- 40 J. Sirois
- 14 H. Johansson
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 18 S. Moore
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 10 S. Moreno
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 23 L. Farrington
Substitutes
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 7 D. Sealy
- 11 A. Castillo
- 20 C. Ronan
- 24 N. Cobb
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 33 K. Thompson
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 12 C. Cappis
- 15 R. Louis
- 28 S. Sarver
- 30 M. Collodi
- 32 N. Norris
- 27 C. Swann
- 24 J. Torquato
- 16 N. Simmonds
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