Match report →
Minnesota United – Houston Dynamo2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Minnesota United
1.34
Total xG
2.53
Houston Dynamo
1.19
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Minnesota United | Houston Dynamo |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.35 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.11 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.11 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Joaquín Pereyra not in squad (3 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Marcus Caldeira on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Kyle Duncan on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 73% available) | ||
| Héctor Herrera not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Ibrahim Aliyu on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Pipeline Prediction: Model calculates a 39% probability for a home win and 69% for Home or Draw
- Minnesota Form Crisis: 5 consecutive losses while conceding an average of 3.4 goals over the last 5 matches
- Tactical Metrics: Houston averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to 4.0 for Minnesota
Risks
- Defensive Vulnerability: Minnesota conceded an average of 3.4 goals in their last 5 games and 1.81 over the season
- Houston Away Concessions: Houston concede an average of 1.54 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Minnesota United39%
Draw30%
Houston Dynamo31%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Minnesota United or draw69%
Houston Dynamo or draw61%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Minnesota United: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 7 of 10 games (70%)
- Minnesota United: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (7 of 22)
Lineups
Minnesota United 3-4-3 · Houston Dynamo 4-3-3
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 16 A. Jackson
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 8 T. Chancalay
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 5 L. Halter
- 11 L. Ennali
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 9 L. Foster
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
Substitutes
- 11 M. Malone
- 3 K. Duncan
- 25 N. Triantis
- 27 D. Taylor
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 5 N. Romero
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 94 K. Rizvanovich
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 14 D. Holmes
- 21 F. Negri
- 22 M. Arana Ibarra
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 37 G. Rivera
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →