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Major League Soccer

Houston Dynamo - SJ Earthquakes

08/30/2026, 12:30 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Houston Dynamo
1.2
Total xG
2.3
SJ Earthquakes
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
HDSE

Houston Dynamo

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.89
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.59
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.01
Agustín Bouzat on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

SJ Earthquakes

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.26
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.26
Preston Judd on the bench (11 goals, 3 assists)
Timo Werner not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists)
Nick Fernandez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
33% of goal output missing (only 78% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SJ Earthquakes: 41% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 17)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)

  • 3
    Houston Dynamo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)

  • 5
    Houston Dynamo: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

32%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

60%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Form discrepancy: Houston Dynamo recorded 4 wins in 5 games compared to 4 losses for the visitors
  • Weakened guest attack: San Jose is missing key forwards Preston Judd and Timo Werner, leaving only 78% of active goals available
  • Strong home defense: Houston concedes an average of just 0.78 goals per match at home
Risk Factors
  • Historical setback: The last direct encounter in August 2025 ended in a 1-2 home defeat for Houston
  • Low-scoring arena trend: The venue recently averaged a low of just 1.6 total goals per match
  • Low offensive volume: Houston Dynamo recently averaged only 4.2 shots on target per match
Overview

Houston Dynamo (2nd place, 38 points) host SJ Earthquakes (4th place, 33 points) at the Shell Energy Stadium

Major League Soccer match on August 30, 2026, 2:30 AM

A crucial battle in the upper part of the table

Form

Houston Dynamo is in strong form with 4 wins and 1 loss

Form across competitions is WWWWL

SJ Earthquakes are struggling with 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 5 games

Form of the away team is DLLLL

Statistics

Houston Dynamo scores an average of 1.43 goals and concedes 1.24 goals per match

At home, Houston's defense is highly stable, conceding only 0.78 goals per game

SJ Earthquakes average 1.86 goals scored but also concede 1.57 goals per match

Head-to-Head

Out of 4 head-to-head matches, Houston Dynamo won 2, with 1 draw and 1 win for SJ Earthquakes

The last match on August 24, 2025, ended in a 2-1 away victory for SJ Earthquakes

Houston leads the goal ratio with 7 goals scored compared to 6 conceded

Key Players

Guilherme leads the home attack with 12 goals and 5 assists, averaging a 7.85 rating

Jack McGlynn has contributed 2 goals and 5 assists from midfield

Ousseni Bouda is a key offensive outlet for the visitors with 5 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Jonathan Bond has kept 9 clean sheets so far this season

Away goalkeeper Angus Gunn holds a season average rating of 6.58

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Shell Energy Stadium

Recent venue history shows a low-scoring trend with an average of 1.6 goals per game

The mathematical model calculates a 39% probability for a home win and 32% for a draw

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