Match report →
Houston Dynamo – SJ Earthquakes0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Houston Dynamo
1.25
Total xG
2.30
SJ Earthquakes
1.06
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Houston Dynamo | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.89 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.59 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.26 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Agustín Bouzat on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Preston Judd on the bench (11 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Timo Werner not in squad (6 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nick Fernandez on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Houston Dynamo recorded 4 wins in 5 games compared to 4 losses for the visitors
- Weakened guest attack: San Jose is missing key forwards Preston Judd and Timo Werner, leaving only 78% of active goals available
- Strong home defense: Houston concedes an average of just 0.78 goals per match at home
Risks
- Historical setback: The last direct encounter in August 2025 ended in a 1-2 home defeat for Houston
- Low-scoring arena trend: The venue recently averaged a low of just 1.6 total goals per match
- Low offensive volume: Houston Dynamo recently averaged only 4.2 shots on target per match
All probabilities
Result
Houston Dynamo39%
Draw32%
SJ Earthquakes30%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.560%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Houston Dynamo or draw70%
SJ Earthquakes or draw61%
No draw68%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SJ Earthquakes: 41% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (7 of 17)
- SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 4 of 6 games (11 points lost)
- Houston Dynamo: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
- Houston Dynamo: 33% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (6 of 18)
Lineups
Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1 · SJ Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
Houston Dynamo
- 31 J. Bond
- 36 F. de Andrade Vieira
- 3 A. Cunha Capocasali Junior
- 34 A. Resch
- 21 F. Negri
- 8 J. McGlynn
- 6 J. de Lima Junior
- 16 H. Herrera López
- 11 L. Ennali
- 19 M. Bogusz
- 20 G. Vieira dos Santos
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 3 P. Marie
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 34 B. Leroux
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 23 E. Löwen
- 7 O. Bouda
Substitutes
- 17 N. Markanich
- 23 D. McGuire
- 14 D. Holmes
- 18 D. Samassekou
- 26 B. Gillingham
- 28 E. Sviatchenko
- 30 A. Bouzat
- 13 S. Vines
- 24 I. Aliyu
- 6 I. Harkes
- 16 J. Skahan
- 19 P. Judd
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 31 F. Montali
- 25 M. Floriani
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 9 L. Jovanovic
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →