Match report →
Vancouver Whitecaps – LA Galaxy3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.14
Total xG
2.98
LA Galaxy
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vancouver Whitecaps | LA Galaxy |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.84 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.03 | |
| Oliver Larraz on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Édier Ocampo not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ryan Gauld on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Joseph Paintsil on the bench (5 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Maya Yoshida on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 85% available) |
Key factors
- Home advantage and control: Vancouver Whitecaps scores an average of 2.15 goals at home and averaged 58% possession in recent matches
- Absences for LA Galaxy: The visitors are missing Joseph Paintsil (5 goals, 3 assists) and Maya Yoshida, leaving only 85% of their usual starting strength
- Mathematical favorite: The prediction model calculates a 66% probability of a home win and expects 2.14 goals for Vancouver
Risks
- Missing key players for the hosts: Vancouver will play without Ryan Gauld (2 goals), Édier Ocampo, and Oliver Larraz
- Historical head-to-head record: LA Galaxy won 3 of the last 5 direct meetings, scoring a total of 12 goals against the Whitecaps
- Strong turf record for visitors: LA Galaxy is undefeated on artificial turf this season with 2 wins and 1 draw
All probabilities
Result
Vancouver Whitecaps66%
Draw22%
LA Galaxy12%
Double chance
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw88%
LA Galaxy or draw34%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- LA Galaxy: 2.7 cards per game (28 yellows, 4 reds in 12 games)
Lineups
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1 · LA Galaxy 4-2-3-1
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 25 R. Gauld
- 13 T. Müller
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 24 B. White
LA Galaxy
- 12 J. Marcinkowski
- 26 H. Miller
- 5 J. Glesnes
- 15 J. Haak
- 3 J. Aude
- 16 I. Parente
- 17 P. Ruíz
- 21 R. Taylor
- 8 L. Sanabria Magolé
- 11 H. Lozano Bahena
- 7 K. Furuhashi
Substitutes
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 3 S. Adekugbe
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 6 S. Roberto Carnicer
- 1 N. Mićović
- 4 M. Yoshida
- 14 J. Nelson
- 18 M. Reus
- 27 E. Thommy
- 25 C. Garcés Torres
- 20 C. Rindov
- 76 T.Elgersma
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