Match report →
Vancouver Whitecaps – San Diego4 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.17
Total xG
3.44
San Diego
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Vancouver Whitecaps | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack strength (1.24x league average) | +0.41 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.41 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.35 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 1, 11 places gap) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 12, 11 places gap) | +0.11 | |
| Emmanuel Sabbi not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Andrés Cubas not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Elias Achouri not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Vancouver scores 2.33 goals per game at home in the league this season, San Diego concedes 1.93 per game away
- Table: Vancouver ranks 1st in the league this season with 55 points, San Diego is 12th with 35 points
Risks
- Form: Vancouver won 1 of its last 5 games, scoring 0.8 goals per game
- Tactics: San Diego recorded 5.4 shots on target per game in its last 5 games, Vancouver 2.0 per game
All probabilities
Result
Vancouver Whitecaps57%
Draw23%
San Diego21%
Double chance
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw79%
San Diego or draw43%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
2:1
From xG 2.17 : 1.27, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
2:2
6%
4:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Diego: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Vancouver Whitecaps: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- San Diego: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Vancouver Whitecaps 4-4-2 · San Diego 4-3-3
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 33 T. Blackmon
- 28 T. Johnson
- 25 R. Gauld
- 23 A. Cvetković
- 8 O. Larraz
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 24 B. White
San Diego
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 20 A. Godoy
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 90 A. Pellegrino
Substitutes
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 59 J. Badwal
- 13 T. Müller
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 4 R. Veselinović
- 22 K. Poku
- 8 O. Valakari
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 36 D. Mimbang Nyangono
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