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Major League Soccer

St. Louis City - Los Angeles FC

05/14/2026, 12:30 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
St. Louis City
1.4
Total xG
2.6
Los Angeles FC
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SLCLAF

St. Louis City

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.50
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 3, 11 places gap)
-0.17
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.03
Simon Becher on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Strong home record (1.6 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Los Angeles FC

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.30
Declining form (1.2 vs 2 season average)
-0.23
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 14, 11 places gap)
+0.06
David MartĂ­nez on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists)
Nathan Ordaz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Stephen Eustaquio on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 100% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Los Angeles FC with Jeremy Ebobisse: 5.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    St. Louis City: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    St. Louis City with Rafael Santos: 1.7 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    St. Louis City: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Los Angeles FC: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Los Angeles FC's significantly better season performance with 3rd place and 1.67 goals on average
  • Los Angeles FC's historical superiority with 4 wins from 5 direct encounters
  • The pipeline analysis predicts a narrow home win with 39% probability despite the league table difference
Risk Factors
  • Los Angeles FC has only 3 days rest since their last match
  • St. Louis City is missing Simon Becher (1 goal, 3 assists), with only 61% of their assist threat available
Overview

St. Louis City (14th place, 9 points) hosts Los Angeles FC (3rd place, 21 points) in a Major League Soccer match. The game takes place on May 14, 2026, 2:30 AM. Los Angeles FC holds a top position, while St. Louis City is at the lower end of the table

Form

St. Louis City's current form across all competitions is 'DLLLW', which corresponds to one win, one draw, and three losses in their last five games. Their last result was a win. Los Angeles FC has a form of 'LDWDL', with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Their last result was a loss. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

St. Louis City averages 0.91 goals scored and 1.64 goals conceded per game this season. At home, the average is 0.86 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded. Los Angeles FC is stronger offensively with an average of 1.67 goals per game and a better defense of 1.0 goals conceded per match. Away from home, Los Angeles FC scores 1.5 goals and concedes 1.0 goals on average. St. Louis City consistently scores (~1.0 goals per game) according to Advanced Stats. Los Angeles FC's goal production is currently stagnant (1.3), while their season average is 2.0

Head-to-Head

In the five direct encounters so far, Los Angeles FC has clearly dominated with four wins and one draw. St. Louis City has not managed to win any of the five meetings. Los Angeles FC scored a total of 10 goals in these matches, while St. Louis City only managed 2 goals. Los Angeles FC won the last game 2-0 on March 15, 2026

Key Players

For St. Louis City, Marcel Hartel (3 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.68 rating), Eduard Löwen (1 goal, 0 assists, avg 6.89 rating), and Daniel Ethan Edelman (0 goals, 2 assists, avg 6.88 rating) are key players in the starting eleven. For Los Angeles FC, Denis Bouanga (5 goals, 1 assist, avg 7.23 rating), Mark Delgado (1 goal, 1 assist, avg 7.17 rating), and Heung-min Son (0 goals, 7 assists, avg 7.12 rating) are notable

Goalkeepers

Roman BĂŒrki of St. Louis City kept 1 clean sheet this season, with an average rating of 6.81. Hugo Lloris of Los Angeles FC recorded 8 clean sheets and has an average rating of 6.99

Influences

St. Louis City scored an average of 0.86 home goals and conceded 0.86 home goals. Los Angeles FC scored an average of 1.5 away goals and conceded 1.0 away goals

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