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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Los Angeles FC

04/25/2026, 08:45 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.5
Total xG
2.8
Los Angeles FC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MULAF

Minnesota United

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-1.16
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.75
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.33
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Tomás Chancalay on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Joaquín Pereyra on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 60% available)

Los Angeles FC

Defensive strength (0.9 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.21
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
Heung-min Son on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists)
Mark Delgado on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Mathieu Choinière on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 65% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Los Angeles FC with Ryan Hollingshead: 4.3 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Los Angeles FC: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Minnesota United: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)

  • 5
    Minnesota United with Nicolás Romero: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0.7 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

28%

Away Win

29%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

71%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

58%

No

42%

Key Factors
  • Current Form: Minnesota United is in top form with four consecutive wins, while Los Angeles FC has only managed one win in their last five games
  • Defensive Strength: Los Angeles FC boasts a stable season defense (0.67 goals conceded), while Minnesota United is unbeaten at home (0 goals conceded in 2 home games)
  • Mathematical Prediction: The pipeline analysis sees Minnesota United as a slight favorite with a home win probability of 43%
Risk Factors
  • Minnesota United: Only 60% of the usual starting XI's attacking threat is available without Tomás Chancalay and Joaquín Pereyra
  • Los Angeles FC: Only 65% of the usual starting XI's attacking threat is available without Heung-min Son, Mark Delgado, and Mathieu Choinière
  • Short Recovery Time: Both teams had only 2 days of rest since their last match
Overview

Minnesota United (4th place, 17 points) host Los Angeles FC (3rd place, 17 points) in Major League Soccer. The match takes place on April 25, 2026, 3:45 PM. Both teams are level on points in the table and are vying for a better position.

Form

Minnesota United shows strong form with W-W-W-W-D in their last five games, securing four consecutive wins. Most recently, they defeated Dallas away with a 1-0 score. Los Angeles FC, however, is in a weaker phase with D-L-L-W-D from their last five matches. The team has only managed one win, two draws, and two losses during this period. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Minnesota United scores an average of 1.22 goals per game and concedes 1.44 goals per game. In home games, the average is 1.5 goals scored and 0.0 goals conceded. Los Angeles FC is stronger offensively with 1.78 goals scored per game and a very stable defense with only 0.67 goals conceded per game. Away, Los Angeles FC averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded per game. Minnesota United kept a clean sheet in 4 games, Los Angeles FC in 7 games. Both teams scored in 4 games for Minnesota United and 2 games for Los Angeles FC. Minnesota United's games had over 2.5 goals in 5 matches, and Los Angeles FC's in 4 matches.

Head-to-Head

In the four direct encounters between Minnesota United and Los Angeles FC, Minnesota United recorded one win. Los Angeles FC won three of the matches. The goal difference stands at 2:4 in favor of Los Angeles FC. The last meeting saw Los Angeles FC win 0-1 away on July 17, 2025.

Key Players

For Minnesota United, forward Kelvin Yeboah is a key player with 5 season goals in 9 appearances. Defender Anthony Markanich Jr. contributed 2 goals and 1 assist in 9 appearances. Midfielder James Rodríguez shows a rising trend with a form trend of +0.21. For Los Angeles FC, forward Denis Bouanga shines with 4 season goals and 1 assist in 9 games, including 3 goals in his last 5 games. Midfielder Stephen Eustaquio scored 1 goal and 1 assist in 4 appearances. Goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has an average season rating of 7.23 in 8 appearances.

Goalkeepers

Minnesota United's goalkeeper, Drake Callender, kept a clean sheet in 4 out of 9 games. Los Angeles FC's goalkeeper Hugo Lloris boasts an impressive record of 7 clean sheets in 8 appearances.

Influences

Minnesota United displays a very strong defensive performance at home with an average of 0.0 goals conceded per home game. Los Angeles FC averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 goal conceded away from home.

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