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Major League Soccer

Los Angeles FC - SJ Earthquakes

04/19/2026, 11:00 PM

1 : 4
Expected Goals
Los Angeles FC
1.5
Total xG
2.9
SJ Earthquakes
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

6%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
LAFSE

Los Angeles FC

Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.65
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match)
-0.15
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15

SJ Earthquakes

Defensive strength (0.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.92
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Small sample (3 matches) - regression to mean
+0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.08
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.66
+0.66
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Los Angeles FC: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 7 total)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Los Angeles FC: first goal in 5 of 6 games (83%)

  • 4
    SJ Earthquakes: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)

  • 5
    Los Angeles FC with Nathan Ordaz: 4 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (4 of 7 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

28%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline prediction: Los Angeles FC has a home win probability of 39% compared to 33% for SJ Earthquakes
  • Strong home defensive performance by Los Angeles FC with 0 goals conceded in 6 home games
  • SJ Earthquakes in good form with 3 consecutive wins and 4 wins in their last 5 games overall
Risk Factors
  • SJ Earthquakes' recent goal production has stalled (1.6 goals) compared to their season average (1.9 goals)
  • Los Angeles FC suffered a loss in their last match
  • The probability of a draw is 28% according to the model
Overview

Los Angeles FC (3rd place, 16 points) hosts SJ Earthquakes (2nd place, 18 points) in a Major League Soccer fixture. The match is scheduled for April 19, 2026, 11:00 PM. Both teams are in top league positions, promising a top-of-the-table clash.

Form

Los Angeles FC's form in their last five games is WWDWL (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). Their last encounter resulted in a loss. SJ Earthquakes, however, are in strong form with WLWWW, recording 4 wins and only 1 loss, including 3 consecutive wins in their last five matches. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss.

Statistics

Los Angeles FC averages 2.14 goals scored per game and concedes only 0.29 goals on average this season. At home, they average 2.0 goals scored and 0 goals conceded. SJ Earthquakes has a seasonal average of 1.86 goals scored and 0.29 goals conceded. Away, SJ Earthquakes averages 1.67 goals scored and 0.33 goals conceded. Both teams scored in 1 game for Los Angeles FC, and also in 1 game for SJ Earthquakes. Los Angeles FC kept 6 clean sheets at home, while SJ Earthquakes managed 2 away clean sheets.

Head-to-Head

In 5 direct encounters, Los Angeles FC dominates the head-to-head record with 4 wins compared to 1 win for SJ Earthquakes. Overall, Los Angeles FC scored 16 goals and conceded 9. The last meeting on September 14, 2025, saw Los Angeles FC win away with a 4:2 score against SJ Earthquakes.

Key Players

Key players for Los Angeles FC include Heung-min Son (0 goals, 6 assists), Denis Bouanga (4 goals, 1 assist), and Mathieu Choinière (2 goals, 0 assists). For SJ Earthquakes, Preston Judd (3 goals, 2 assists), Daniel Munie (2 goals, 1 assist), and Niko Tsakiris (2 goals, 1 assist) stand out. Heung-min Son provided 4 assists in his last 5 games. Denis Bouanga scored 3 goals in his last 5 games. Niko Tsakiris recorded 2 goals and 1 assist in his last 5 games.

Goalkeepers

Hugo Lloris of Los Angeles FC has recorded 6 clean sheets this season. Daniel of SJ Earthquakes has kept 5 clean sheets.

Influences

Los Angeles FC has a very strong home record with 12 goals scored and no goals conceded in 6 home games. SJ Earthquakes conceded an average of 0.33 goals per away game.

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