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Major League Soccer

San Diego - Colorado Rapids

08/23/2026, 02:30 AM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
San Diego
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Colorado Rapids
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

10%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%
What influences the xG?
SDCR

San Diego

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.27
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 7, 6 places gap)
-0.09
Marcus Ingvartsen on the bench (11 goals, 2 assists)
Alex Mighten on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 71% available)

Colorado Rapids

Attack weakness (0.58x league average)
-0.59
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.17
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.17
4 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
-0.04
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 13, 6 places gap)
+0.03
Wayne Frederick on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Colorado Rapids: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    San Diego: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    San Diego with Jeppe TverskovĀ : 0.8 goals/game. Without: 3.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    San Diego: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Colorado Rapids: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

30%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Home vs Away stats: Colorado Rapids averaged 2.29 goals conceded away from home, while San Diego concedes only 1.07 at home
  • Weakened home attack: Only 71% of San Diego's typical lineup strength is available as top scorer Marcus Ingvartsen is missing
  • Tactical control: San Diego averaged 63.8% possession in their recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue on both sides: Both teams enter this match with only 3 days of rest since their last game
  • Struggling home attack: San Diego's goal production slowed down recently, averaging only 0.8 goals per match compared to their season average of 1.7
  • Defensive issues on the road: Colorado Rapids concedes a high average of 2.29 goals per away match
Overview

San Diego (13th place, 24 points) host Colorado Rapids (7th place, 28 points) at Snapdragon Stadium

MLS match on August 23, 2026, 2:30 AM

The hosts aim to move away from the bottom of the table, while Colorado look to solidify their playoff spot

Form

San Diego shows mediocre form with LWDWL in recent matches

The form summary records 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Colorado Rapids is in strong shape with 4 wins and 1 loss (Form: WLWWW)

The visitors travel with a streak of 3 consecutive wins

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

San Diego averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.6 goals conceded per match

At home, they score an average of 1.71 goals and concede only 1.07

Colorado Rapids averages 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded this season

Away from home, Colorado concedes significantly more with an average of 2.29 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches in history

Colorado Rapids leads with 2 wins compared to 1 win for San Diego

The goal difference is balanced at 4:4

The last meeting on July 23, 2026, ended in a 1-0 win for Colorado Rapids

Key Players

Anders Dreyer leads San Diego with 8 goals and 7 assists, sporting a 7.64 rating

Onni Valakari has contributed 3 goals and 3 assists with a 7.09 rating so far

Jeppe Tverskov stabilizes the midfield with an average rating of 7.23

Not nominated: Marcus Ingvartsen (11G/2A), Alex Mighten (0G/2A)

Rafael Navarro leads Colorado Rapids with 10 season goals and 3 assists

Paxten Aaronson impresses in midfield with 4 goals and 5 assists

LoĆÆc Williams stabilizes the defense with a rating of 7.17

Not nominated: Wayne Frederick (2G/2A)

Goalkeepers

CJ dos Santos starts for San Diego with a rating of 6.95 and 4 home clean sheets

Nicolas Hansen guards the net for Colorado Rapids with a rating of 7.08 and 7 clean sheets this season

Influences

San Diego benefits from home advantage at Snapdragon Stadium, conceding just 1.07 goals per home game

The natural grass surface provides familiar conditions for the hosts

Stadium history shows a high-scoring trend with an average of 3.4 goals per match

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