šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Vancouver Whitecaps - Austin

09/13/2026, 10:30 PM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Vancouver Whitecaps
2.3
Total xG
2.9
Austin
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

14%

3:0

10%

2:1

9%

1:1

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
VWAUS

Vancouver Whitecaps

Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.88
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Thomas MĆ¼ller not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
Emmanuel Sabbi on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Ɖdier Ocampo on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Austin

Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.96
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.03
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')

  • 2
    Bruno Caicedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Austin: 8 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Austin: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

19%

Away Win

8%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

92%

Away or Draw

27%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Clear matchup advantage: Vancouver's solid home defense (0.64 goals conceded) faces Austin's weak away defense (2.82 goals conceded)
  • Turf dominance: The Whitecaps boast an impressive home record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on artificial turf
  • Statistical model: The calculated home win probability stands at a strong 73%
Risk Factors
  • Tight schedule: Both teams have only 3 days of recovery time since their last competitive match
  • Missing starters: Thomas MĆ¼ller (7 goals) and Emmanuel Sabbi (4 goals) are missing from Vancouver's starting lineup
Overview

Vancouver Whitecaps (1st place, 46 points) host Austin (14th place, 26 points) at the BC Place Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 13, 2026, 10:30 PM

The league leaders enter the match as strong favorites

Form

Vancouver Whitecaps hold a form of LWWLW following a 3-0 victory against LA Galaxy

Austin is stable with a form of WDWDD and two consecutive draws

The home team's strength meets the visitors' unbeaten streak

Statistics

Vancouver averages 2.21 goals scored and only 0.64 goals conceded per home game

Austin struggles heavily away from home, conceding an average of 2.82 goals per match

Vancouver kept 10 clean sheets this season compared to only 4 by Austin

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches overall

Vancouver dominates the history with 2 wins and 2 draws, outscoring Austin 6:1

The last direct encounter ended in a 0-0 draw on May 18, 2025

Key Players

Brian White leads Vancouver's attack with 14 goals this season and 4 goals in his last 5 matches

Ryan Gauld directs the midfield with a season rating of 7.35

Facundo Torres is Austin's key threat with 4 goals, 5 assists, and a 7.19 rating

Goalkeepers

Yohei Takaoka has secured 10 clean sheets for Vancouver with a 6.76 average rating

Brad Stuver has kept 4 clean sheets for Austin with a 7.16 average rating

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at the BC Place Stadium

Vancouver is dominant on this surface with a record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Austin has recorded 2 wins and 1 loss on artificial turf so far

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.