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Major League Soccer09/13/2026, 10:30 PM

Vancouver Whitecaps – Austin1 : 2

Why the model thinks so

Vancouver Whitecaps
2.26
Total xG
2.92
Austin
0.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorVancouver WhitecapsAustin
Attack weakness (0.62x league average)−0.96
Defensive strength (1 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)−0.88
High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)+0.69+0.69
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 14, 13 places gap)+0.14
Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 1, 13 places gap)−0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)+0.03
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)+0.01
Thomas Müller not in squad (7 goals, 5 assists)
Emmanuel Sabbi on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists)
Édier Ocampo on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Clear matchup advantage: Vancouver's solid home defense (0.64 goals conceded) faces Austin's weak away defense (2.82 goals conceded)
  • Turf dominance: The Whitecaps boast an impressive home record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses on artificial turf
  • Statistical model: The calculated home win probability stands at a strong 73%

Risks

  • Tight schedule: Both teams have only 3 days of recovery time since their last competitive match
  • Missing starters: Thomas Müller (7 goals) and Emmanuel Sabbi (4 goals) are missing from Vancouver's starting lineup

All probabilities

Result
Vancouver Whitecaps73%
Draw19%
Austin8%
Double chance
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw92%
Austin or draw27%
No draw81%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%

Most likely scores

2:0
14%
3:0
10%
2:1
9%
1:1
9%
3:1
7%
1:2
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')
  2. Bruno Caicedo: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
  3. Austin: 8 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
  4. Austin: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Lineups

Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1 · Austin 3-4-3

Vancouver Whitecaps
  • 1 Y. Takaoka
  • 70 R. Muati Modesto
  • 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
  • 33 T. Blackmon
  • 28 T. Johnson
  • 8 O. Larraz
  • 20 A. Cubas
  • 7 C. Sabaly
  • 25 R. Gauld
  • 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
  • 24 B. White
Austin
  • 1 B. Stuver
  • 3 M. Desler
  • 15 J. Bell
  • 29 Guilherme Biro
  • 30 J. Rosales Erazo
  • 38 E. Torres
  • 14 B. Sabovic
  • 17 J. Gallagher
  • 11 F. Torres Pérez
  • 21 C. Ramírez
  • 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
Substitutes
  • 19 R. Elloumi
  • 59 J. Badwal
  • 11 E. Sabbi
  • 18 ?. Vidal
  • 29 M. Gherasimencov
  • 32 I. Boehmer
  • 77 Y. Diaby
  • 3 S. Adekugbe
  • 23 A. Cvetković
  • 77 P. Płacheta
  • 4 B. Hines-Ike
  • 5 O. Svatok
  • 6 I. Sánchez Farrés
  • 12 D. Las
  • 23 Ž. Kolmanič
  • 32 M. Burton
  • 35 M. Đorđević
  • 9 B. Vázquez Toledo

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