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San Diego – SJ Earthquakes2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
1.44
Total xG
2.71
SJ Earthquakes
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.37 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.32 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Kieran Sargeant on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ousseni Bouda on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: San Diego recently won 3 of their last 5 matches, while SJ Earthquakes are winless in their last 5 games
- Offensive decline: SJ Earthquakes averaged only 0.75 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.82
- Home defense: San Diego conceded only 0.94 goals per home game on average, with the model calculating a 68% chance for home win or draw
Risks
- Head-to-head history: SJ Earthquakes won the last direct encounter decisively by 3-0
- Form setback: San Diego lost their last league match 0-1 against Orlando City
- Away scoring threat: The visitors averaged 1.75 goals scored per away match
All probabilities
Result
San Diego39%
Draw29%
SJ Earthquakes32%
Double chance
San Diego or draw68%
SJ Earthquakes or draw61%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (13 points lost)
- SJ Earthquakes: 43% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 14)
- SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
San Diego 4-3-3 · SJ Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 26 M. Duah
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 20 A. Godoy
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 8 O. Valakari
- 99 M. Achouri
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 6 I. Harkes
- 34 B. Leroux
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 9 L. Jovanovic
- 19 P. Judd
Substitutes
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 18 D. Ferree
- 21 B. Duke
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 32 I. Murphy
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 7 O. Bouda
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 16 J. Skahan
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 28 B. Kikanovic
- 31 F. Montali
- 25 M. Floriani
- 23 E. Löwen
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