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Major League Soccer

San Diego - SJ Earthquakes

09/10/2026, 02:30 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
San Diego
1.4
Total xG
2.7
SJ Earthquakes
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SDSE

San Diego

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Kieran Sargeant on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

SJ Earthquakes

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.37
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.8 season average)
-0.32
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
Ousseni Bouda on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Jamar Ricketts on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    SJ Earthquakes: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (13 points lost)

  • 2
    SJ Earthquakes: 43% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (6 of 14)

  • 3
    SJ Earthquakes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

39%

Draw

29%

Away Win

32%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

51%

Under 2.5

49%

Over 3.5

29%

Under 3.5

71%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

68%

Away or Draw

61%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Form discrepancy: San Diego recently won 3 of their last 5 matches, while SJ Earthquakes are winless in their last 5 games
  • Offensive decline: SJ Earthquakes averaged only 0.75 goals recently compared to their season average of 1.82
  • Home defense: San Diego conceded only 0.94 goals per home game on average, with the model calculating a 68% chance for home win or draw
Risk Factors
  • Head-to-head history: SJ Earthquakes won the last direct encounter decisively by 3-0
  • Form setback: San Diego lost their last league match 0-1 against Orlando City
  • Away scoring threat: The visitors averaged 1.75 goals scored per away match
Overview

San Diego hosts SJ Earthquakes at the Snapdragon Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 10, 2026, 4:30 AM

Ninth place faces sixth place in the standings

Form

San Diego enters the match with a form of WLWWL

Their most recent match was a 0-1 loss against Orlando City

SJ Earthquakes show a form of LLLDD

Their last game ended in a 1-1 draw against Austin

Statistics

San Diego averages 1.74 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded

At home they score 1.76 goals and concede 0.94 goals per match on average

SJ Earthquakes average 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 goals conceded in away matches

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches so far

San Diego has 1 win while SJ Earthquakes won 2 matches

The last encounter ended in a 0-3 victory for SJ Earthquakes

Key Players

Anders Dreyer has scored 8 goals and provided 10 assists this season

Preston Judd has scored 11 goals this season

Not nominated are Kieran Sargeant as well as Ousseni Bouda and Jamar Ricketts

Goalkeepers

CJ dos Santos has a season rating of 7.00 in goal for San Diego

Angus Gunn guards the goal with a season rating of 6.61

CJ dos Santos kept 7 clean sheets this season while Angus Gunn has 6

Influences

The match is played at the Snapdragon Stadium on grass

The venue stats show an average of 2.4 goals per game over 5 matches

The mathematical model projects a 39% probability for a home win

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