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Colorado Rapids – Seattle Sounders3 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
1.98
Total xG
2.84
Seattle Sounders
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.49 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.23 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 14, 7 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 7, 7 places gap) | −0.07 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Darren Yapi on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Georgi Minoungou on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Youssef Maziz not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 30% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Paul Rothrock not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.9 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Outstanding home defense for Colorado Rapids conceding only 0.53 goals per match
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 62%
- Seattle Sounders are winless in their last 5 games and arrive with a form of LDDDD
Risks
- Youssef Maziz, Darren Yapi, and Georgi Minoungou are missing, leaving Colorado with only 69% of their usual attacking threat
- Colorado Rapids failed to win any of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Seattle
- Seattle Sounders managed to keep 4 clean sheets in 8 away games this season
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids62%
Draw23%
Seattle Sounders14%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw86%
Seattle Sounders or draw38%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.579%
Under 1.521%
Over 2.554%
Under 2.546%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
2:0
11%
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Seattle Sounders: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Seattle Sounders: 10 of 22 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: 5 wins in 6 games with xG above 1.0 (83% win rate)
- Seattle Sounders: 4 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (4 of 8 total)
- Seattle Sounders with Cristian Roldán starting: 1.3 goals/game, without him: 0.7 (13/7 games, last 23)
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-3-3 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 4 R. Cannon
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 32 D. Phillip
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 10 P. Aaronson
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16 A. Roldan
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 5 N. Tolo
- 45 P. Kingston
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 13 J. Morris
- 9 D. Joveljić
- 11 A. Rusnák
Substitutes
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 12 J. Atencio
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 77 D. Yapi
- 99 J. Travis
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 44 C. Aquino Valverde
- 8 C. Clark
- 17 P. Arriola
- 24 S. Frei
- 25 J. Ragen
- 35 A. Lopez
- 37 S. Brunell
- 90 S. Gomez
- 4 R. Sailor
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