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Major League Soccer

Austin - San Diego

09/27/2026, 12:30 AM

3 : 3
Expected Goals
Austin
1.3
Total xG
2.4
San Diego
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

10%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
AUSSD

Austin

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.79
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.04
Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.01
J. Rosales on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists)
Guilherme Biro not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)

San Diego

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.30
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.09
Onni Valakari not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
Elias Achouri on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Gabriel Pirani not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Austin: 5 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Seattle Sounders: 2 goals (86', 90+1')

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

38%

Draw

31%

Away Win

31%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

69%

Away or Draw

62%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

50%

No

50%

Key Factors
  • Austin currently scores more frequently, with a recent average of 1.5 goals compared to a season average of 1.3
  • San Diego has a clear weakness on the road, conceding an average of 2.86 goals per away game
  • The mathematical model calculates a home win or draw probability of 69%
Risk Factors
  • Austin recently averaged only 2.6 shots on target per game
  • San Diego's goal-scoring has stalled recently, with a recent average of 1.4 goals compared to a season average of 1.7
Overview

Austin hosts San Diego in Major League Soccer

Match on September 27, 2026, 2:30 AM at Q2 Stadium

A clash between close neighbors: 11th-placed San Diego with 31 points against 12th-placed Austin with 30 points

A very tight MLS encounter is expected

Form

Austin's form shows improvement with WDDWD

The home team achieved 2 wins and 3 draws in their last 5 matches

San Diego has a weaker record of WLLLD

The visitors secured 1 win, 1 draw, and suffered 3 defeats in their last 5 games

Statistics

Austin scores an average of 1.23 goals and concedes 1.69 goals per game this season

At home, their defense is more stable, conceding only 0.92 goals per game

San Diego scores an average of 1.69 goals per game and also concedes 1.69 goals

On the road, San Diego concedes a high average of 2.86 goals per game

Head-to-Head

There have been 3 head-to-head matches between the two teams so far

San Diego leads the historical record with 2 wins compared to 1 win for Austin

The goal difference stands at 8-2 in favor of San Diego

The last encounter on May 14, 2026, ended in a dominant 5-0 victory for San Diego

Key Players

Facundo Torres shines for Austin with 4 goals and 6 assists, averaging a 7.19 rating

Christian Ramirez has scored 7 season goals for the home team

Anders Dreyer is the key player for the visitors with 11 goals and 10 assists and a 7.64 rating

Marcus Ingvartsen also contributed 11 goals this season for San Diego

Goalkeepers

Damian Las is in goal for Austin with a 7.64 rating

Duran Ferree guards the goal for San Diego with an average rating of 6.83 in 15 appearances

Influences

The home advantage is reflected in Austin's stable home record of just 12 goals conceded in 13 home games

At Q2 Stadium, matches average 2.6 goals per game with a 100% BTTS rate in the last 5 matches

The match is played on natural grass

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