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Portland Timbers – Dallas2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.22
Total xG
2.79
Dallas
1.57
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −1.18 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.81 | +0.81 |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.57 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.18 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Kristoffer Velde on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Petar Musa on the bench (12 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Ran Binyamin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 23% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Dallas' superior form: 4 wins from the last 5 matches compared to Portland's 2 wins
- Away strength of Dallas: The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals and concede just 1.0 goal on the road
- Historical advantage: Dallas dominated the last 4 encounters and remains unbeaten against Portland
Risks
- Surface disadvantage for Dallas: The visitors lost their only match on artificial turf 1-2
- Painful absences for Dallas: Top scorer Petar Musa (12 goals) is unavailable
- Portland's possession strength: The home side recently dominated with an average of 58% possession
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers28%
Draw28%
Dallas44%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw56%
Dallas or draw72%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.553%
Under 2.547%
Over 3.531%
Under 3.569%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Portland Timbers with José Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Dallas: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Portland Timbers: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 16)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-1-4-1 · Dallas 4-4-1-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 5 B. Bye
- 20 F. Surman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 17 C. Bassett
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 11 A. Alves Santos
- 19 K. Kelsy Genez
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 14 H. Johansson
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 18 S. Moore
- 32 N. Norris
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 12 C. Cappis
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 10 S. Moreno
- 23 L. Farrington
Substitutes
- 9 F. Mora Aliaga
- 15 E. Miller
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 99 K. Velde
- 6 A. Bonetig
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 9 P. Musa
- 11 A. Julio Santos
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 28 S. Sarver
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 27 C. Swann
- 40 J. Sirois
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