šŸ‡ŗšŸ‡ø

Major League Soccer

Portland Timbers - Dallas

07/23/2026, 02:30 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Portland Timbers
1.2
Total xG
2.8
Dallas
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

0:2

8%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
PTDAL

Portland Timbers

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-1.18
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.57
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.30
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.8 season average)
+0.30
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 5, 7 places gap)
-0.09
Kristoffer Velde on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)

Dallas

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.18
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
-0.13
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 12, 7 places gap)
+0.05
Petar Musa on the bench (12 goals, 2 assists)
Ran Binyamin on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.81
+0.81
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Dallas: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Portland Timbers with JosƩ Luis Caicedo Barrera: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Dallas: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Portland Timbers: 38% of all goals between minutes 16-30 (6 of 16)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

28%

Draw

28%

Away Win

44%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

53%

Under 2.5

47%

Over 3.5

31%

Under 3.5

69%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

56%

Away or Draw

72%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Dallas' superior form: 4 wins from the last 5 matches compared to Portland's 2 wins
  • Away strength of Dallas: The visitors score an average of 2.0 goals and concede just 1.0 goal on the road
  • Historical advantage: Dallas dominated the last 4 encounters and remains unbeaten against Portland
Risk Factors
  • Surface disadvantage for Dallas: The visitors lost their only match on artificial turf 1-2
  • Painful absences for Dallas: Top scorer Petar Musa (12 goals) is unavailable
  • Portland's possession strength: The home side recently dominated with an average of 58% possession
Overview

Portland Timbers host Dallas at Providence Park

Major League Soccer match on July 23, 2026, 4:30 AM

Portland currently sits in 12th place with 17 points

Dallas occupies 5th place with 25 points

Dallas enters the match as the favorites

Form

Portland Timbers form: WDLLW

Dallas form: WWLWW

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Portland secured 2 wins and 1 draw in their last 5 matches

Dallas achieved 4 wins and 1 loss in their last 5 matches

The visitors display a more stable run of form

Statistics

Portland scores an average of 1.8 goals and concedes 1.93 goals per game

At home, Portland averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.38 goals conceded

Dallas averages 2.0 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per match

In away matches, Dallas shines with an average of 2.0 goals scored and only 1.0 goal conceded

Both teams have 10 matches each with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

Dallas dominated with 2 wins and 2 draws

Portland failed to win any of the direct encounters

The last meeting ended in a 2-2 draw on September 28, 2025

Key Players

Kevin Kelsy scored 7 goals and provided 2 assists in 15 matches

David Da Costa recorded 1 goal and 5 assists in 12 matches

Cole Bassett contributed 3 goals and 2 assists in 11 matches

Logan Farrington is Dallas' top scorer with 6 goals and 2 assists

Santiago Moreno follows with 2 goals and 1 assist in 10 matches

Kaick recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in 15 matches

Not nominated for Portland: Kristoffer Velde (4 goals, 1 assist)

Not nominated for Dallas: Petar Musa (12 goals, 2 assists) and Ran Binyamin (0 goals, 2 assists)

Goalkeepers

James Pantemis made 15 appearances and achieved 1 clean sheet

Daniel has zero appearances in the league season but played in 5 recent matches

Dallas has recorded 3 clean sheets in total this season

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf at Providence Park

Portland holds a record of 4 wins, 1 draw, and 3 losses on artificial turf

Dallas lost their only match played on this surface this season

The historical stadium stats show an average of 4.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 80% of the matches at Providence Park

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.