Match report →
St. Louis City – Vancouver Whitecaps0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.79
Total xG
3.45
Vancouver Whitecaps
1.65
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Vancouver Whitecaps |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.08 | +1.08 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (3.6 goals/match) | +0.50 | |
| Rising form (3.6 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.50 | |
| Attack strength (1.31x league average) | +0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.26 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| T. Müller not in squad (9 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| 16% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.8 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: St. Louis City are scoring more recently (3.6 goals) than their season average (1.9) with a calculated 40% home win probability
- Tactical metric: St. Louis City averaged 6.8 shots on target in recent matches
- Form momentum: St. Louis City won 4 consecutive matches while Vancouver won 1 of their last 5
Risks
- Key absence: T. Müller is missing for the visitors leaving 82% of active goal production available
- Defensive vulnerability: Vancouver Whitecaps averaged 1.8 goals conceded in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City40%
Draw25%
Vancouver Whitecaps35%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw65%
Vancouver Whitecaps or draw60%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes69%
No31%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
5%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- St. Louis City: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- St. Louis City: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: 62% of all goals in the first half (20 of 32, last 12 games)
- St. Louis City: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 12 games (42%)
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-3 · Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 21 D. Polvara
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 27 F. Fol
- 6 C. Wallem
- 8 C. Durkin
- 24 D. Edelman
- 14 T. Totland
- 19 C. Holse
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
- 23 A. Măţan
Vancouver Whitecaps
- 1 Y. Takaoka
- 18 ?. Vidal
- 2 M. Laborda Malseñido
- 6 R. Priso-Mbongue
- 28 T. Johnson
- 8 O. Larraz
- 20 A. Cubas
- 11 E. Sabbi
- 25 R. Gauld
- 77 Y. Diaby
- 24 B. White
Substitutes
- 42 D. Downs
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 11 S. Becher
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 28 M. Perez
- 39 B. Lundt
- 77 S. Jeong
- 99 J. Orozco
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 7 C. Sabaly
- 70 R. Muati Modesto
- 19 R. Elloumi
- 29 M. Gherasimencov
- 32 I. Boehmer
- 41 N. Djordjevic
- 14 B. Caicedo Quiñonez
- 4 R. Veselinović
- 23 A. Cvetković
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