Match report â
Colorado Rapids â Minnesota United2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Colorado Rapids
2.04
Total xG
3.20
Minnesota United
1.16
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Colorado Rapids | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.56 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Attack strength (1.27x league average) | â0.30 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | â0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 8, 6 places gap) | â0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 14, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | â0.01 | |
| Reggie Cannon on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Josh Atencio on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| JoaquĂn Pereyra not in squad (3 goals, 10 assists) | ||
| Anthony Markanich Jr. not in squad (8 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Kyle Duncan not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 74% available) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Colorado Rapids host a vulnerable away defense (1.94 goals conceded per away game)
- Pipeline model prediction: The statistical model calculates a 56% home win probability with 2.04 expected goals for the Rapids
- Form gap: Colorado lost only 1 of their last 5 matches while Minnesota failed to win any of their past 5 games
Risks
- Squad impact: JoaquĂn Pereyra, Anthony Markanich Jr., and Kyle Duncan are not starting, leaving only 74% of usual goal threat active
- Defensive concern for Minnesota: Minnesota United conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match over their last 5 games
- Offensive output: Minnesota United averaged only 3.6 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Colorado Rapids56%
Draw24%
Minnesota United20%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Double chance
Colorado Rapids or draw80%
Minnesota United or draw44%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: dropped a lead in 5 of 6 games (12 points lost)
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Minnesota United: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: 6 of 15 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
Lineups
Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1 · Minnesota United 4-4-2
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro ZĂĄrate
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 77 D. Yapi
- 32 D. Phillip
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 52 C. Valerius
- 28 J. DĂaz Beleño
- 15 M. Boxall
- 23 M. Duggan
- 21 B. Hlongwane
- 30 O. GĂ©ne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 8 T. Chancalay
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 22 M. Caldeira
Substitutes
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
- 11 I. Sadiq
- 4 R. Cannon
- 12 J. Atencio
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 99 J. Travis
- 33 K. Thompson
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 3 K. Duncan
- 25 N. Triantis
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 27 D. Taylor
- 5 N. Romero
- 18 M. Gonzalez
- 94 K. Rizvanovich
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account â