Match report →
Dallas – Colorado Rapids3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Dallas
1.65
Total xG
2.91
Colorado Rapids
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Dallas | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −0.71 | |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.18 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.17 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2 season average) | −0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 2, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 9, 7 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Santiago Moreno on the bench (4 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Ran Binyamin on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Darren Yapi on the bench (5 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Georgi Minoungou on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Donavan Phillip on the bench (3 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Dallas averages 1.81 goals per game at home in the league this season, Colorado Rapids 0.94 away
- Table: Dallas ranks 2nd in the league with 55 points from 33 games, Colorado Rapids is 9th with 43 points
Risks
- Possession: Colorado Rapids averaged 56.4% possession per game in the last 5 games, Dallas 47%
All probabilities
Result
Dallas45%
Draw27%
Colorado Rapids28%
Double chance
Dallas or draw72%
Colorado Rapids or draw55%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.65 : 1.26, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against SJ Earthquakes: 3 goals (82', 88', 90+4')
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Colorado Rapids: dropped a lead in 7 of 10 games (16 points lost)
- Colorado Rapids: 8 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Dallas: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Dallas with Ramiro starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (23/6 games, last 30)
Lineups
Dallas 3-5-2 · Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 18 S. Moore
- 14 H. Johansson
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 9 P. Musa
- 7 D. Job
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 33 K. Thompson
- 24 N. Cobb
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 12 J. Atencio
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 9 S. Abu Farhi
Substitutes
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 12 C. Cappis
- 23 L. Farrington
- 28 S. Sarver
- 32 N. Norris
- 40 J. Sirois
- 10 S. Moreno
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 6 R. Holding
- 21 T. Ku-Dipietro
- 77 D. Yapi
- 99 J. Travis
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 32 D. Phillip
- 88 Y. Maziz
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →