Match report →
Portland Timbers – Colorado Rapids0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Portland Timbers
1.64
Total xG
2.94
Colorado Rapids
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Portland Timbers | Colorado Rapids |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.76 | +0.76 |
| Attack weakness (0.57x league average) | −0.71 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.05 | |
| Ariel Lassiter on the bench (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Cole Bassett on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 82% available) | ||
| Paxten Aaronson on the bench (7 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Keegan Rosenberry on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Hamzat Ojediran on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Reggie Cannon not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 75% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Portland scores 2.21 goals per home game in the league, Colorado concedes 1.86 per away game
- Head-to-head: Portland won 3 of the last 5 meetings against Colorado, Colorado won 2
- Attack: Colorado scored 1.8 goals per game in the last 5 matches, Portland conceded 2.2 per game in the same period
Risks
- Form: Portland is winless in the last 5 games with 1 draw and 4 losses, Colorado recorded 1 win and 3 draws
- Table: Colorado sits in 9th place with 38 points from 29 games, Portland in 11th with 33 points
- Rest days: Portland Timbers with 3 days since the last match
All probabilities
Result
Portland Timbers44%
Draw27%
Colorado Rapids29%
Double chance
Portland Timbers or draw71%
Colorado Rapids or draw56%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Colorado Rapids: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- Portland Timbers: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Colorado Rapids: 6 of 16 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Portland Timbers: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (6 of 20 total)
- Portland Timbers: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Portland Timbers 4-3-3 · Colorado Rapids 4-2-3-1
Portland Timbers
- 41 J. Pantemis
- 12 R. Hernández Pimentel
- 2 J. Waterman
- 4 K. Miller
- 27 J. Fory
- 73 E. Izoita
- 21 D. Chará Zamora
- 10 D. Pereira da Costa
- 22 O. Fernandez
- 14 V. Janssen
- 99 K. Velde
Colorado Rapids
- 41 N. Defreitas Hansen
- 33 K. Thompson
- 6 R. Holding
- 5 L. Ntambue Kayumba
- 29 M. Navarro Zárate
- 12 J. Atencio
- 13 W. Frederick II
- 32 D. Phillip
- 7 M. Whittaker
- 93 G. Minoungou
- 77 D. Yapi
Substitutes
- 7 A. Lassiter
- 15 E. Miller
- 23 I. Smith
- 25 T. Muse
- 28 A. Aravena Guzmán
- 80 J. Ortiz Landázuri
- 17 C. Bassett
- 30 J. Caicedo Barrera
- 8 H. Ojediran
- 11 I. Sadiq
- 2 K. Rosenberry
- 10 P. Aaronson
- 16 A. Harris
- 24 N. Cobb
- 99 J. Travis
- 31 A. Beaudry
- 61 B. Dowd
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