Match report →
CF Montréal – Columbus Crew0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.38
Total xG
2.64
Columbus Crew
1.26
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.38 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Matty Longstaff on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Noah Streit on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brayan Vera not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 11% of goal output missing (only 91% available) | ||
| W. Abou Ali not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 14% of goal output missing (only 77% available) |
Key factors
- CF Montréal averaged 4.6 shots on target in recent matches
- CF Montréal's recent goal scoring has slowed down to 0.8 compared to their season average of 1.3
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Montréal at 38%
Risks
- Columbus Crew concedes an average of 2.08 goals per away match
- The absence of W. Abou Ali noticeably weakens the away side's attack
- Columbus Crew averaged only 3.4 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal38%
Draw29%
Columbus Crew33%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw67%
Columbus Crew or draw62%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Columbus Crew: 9 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Columbus Crew: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-2-3-1 · Columbus Crew 3-4-2-1
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 2 J. Neal
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 22 V. Loturi
- 6 S. Piette
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 21 F. Herbers
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 9 P. Owusu
Columbus Crew
- 28 P. Schulte
- 31 S. Moreira
- 25 S. Zawadzki
- 18 M. Amundsen
- 23 M. Farsi
- 16 T. Habroune
- 20 A. Tavares Gomes
- 21 A. Zaroury
- 10 B. Méndez Portela
- 8 S. Rodríguez Molina
- 77 J. Martínez
Substitutes
- 17 D. Sealy
- 28 V. Radojević
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 23 N. Streit
- 5 B. Craig
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 41 S. Keita
- 3 E. Bailly
- 1 N. Hagen Godoy
- 2 M. Herrera Mansilla
- 7 D. Chambost
- 14 A. Sejdic
- 12 C. Ruvalcaba Perez
- 33 G. Tapia Dubournais
- 11 B. Lennon
- 50 T. Karumanchi
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →