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Major League Soccer10/11/2026, 12:30 AM

Austin – Nashville SC1 : 4

Why the model thinks so

Austin
1.20
Total xG
2.55
Nashville SC
1.35
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff

How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.

FactorAustinNashville SC
High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)+0.73+0.73
Attack weakness (0.72x league average)−0.64
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)−0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 1, 12 places gap)−0.16
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches−0.15
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average)+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 13, 12 places gap)+0.08
Defensive strength (1.9 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)+0.04
Christian Ramirez on the bench (9 goals, 2 assists)
J. Rosales not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 2.3 goals/match)

Key factors

  • Standings gap: League leaders Nashville SC (60 points) face 13th-placed Austin (31 points)
  • Offensive and defensive balance: Nashville SC averages 2.04 goals scored and just 0.78 conceded per game
  • Squad rotation for Austin: Christian Ramirez (9 goals) and J. Rosales (4 assists) are not in the starting XI

Risks

  • Defensive vulnerability: Austin concedes an average of 1.74 goals per match
  • Low shooting output: Austin averaged only 3.2 shots on target in recent matches

All probabilities

Result
Austin32%
Draw30%
Nashville SC38%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Austin or draw62%
Nashville SC or draw68%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%

Most likely scores

1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
6%
1:4
Final score

The Lab

Patterns our system found in the data.

  1. Austin: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against San Diego: 2 goals (82', 86')
  2. Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
  3. Austin: 3 comebacks in 5 games after trailing past minute 75 (3 points rescued)
  4. Austin: 75% of all goals in the second half (12 of 16, last 12 games)
  5. Nashville SC: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against Cincinnati: 2 goals (89', 90+6')

Lineups

Austin 3-4-3 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1

Austin
  • 1 B. Stuver
  • 3 M. Desler
  • 15 J. Bell
  • 29 Guilherme Biro
  • 11 F. Torres PĂ©rez
  • 38 E. Torres
  • 6 I. SĂĄnchez FarrĂ©s
  • 17 J. Gallagher
  • 24 J. Alastuey Aperte
  • 9 B. VĂĄzquez Toledo
  • 10 M. Uzuni
Nashville SC
  • 99 B. Schwake
  • 31 A. Najar RodrĂ­guez
  • 4 J. Palacios Murillo
  • 3 M. Woledzi
  • 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
  • 8 P. Yazbek
  • 16 M. Corcoran
  • 7 C. Espinoza
  • 10 H. Mukhtar
  • 11 E. Saad
  • 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
  • 77 P. PƂacheta
  • 4 B. Hines-Ike
  • 5 O. Svatok
  • 12 D. Las
  • 32 M. Burton
  • 35 M. Đorđević
  • 14 B. Sabovic
  • 21 C. RamĂ­rez
  • 22 C. Applewhite
  • 1 J. Willis
  • 2 D. Lovitz
  • 5 J. Maher
  • 6 B. Acosta Ramos
  • 19 A. Muyl
  • 20 E. Tagseth
  • 22 J. Bauer
  • 41 W. Madrigal Molina
  • 14 S. Mohammed

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