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Dallas – SJ Earthquakes3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Dallas
1.74
Total xG
3.20
SJ Earthquakes
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Dallas | SJ Earthquakes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.67 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.25 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 2 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Christian Cappis on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Preston Judd on the bench (16 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Paul Marie on the bench (0 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 87% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Dallas averages 1.86 goals per game at home in the league this season, SJ Earthquakes 1.73 away per game
- Table: Dallas is 3rd in the league with 51 points from 30 games, SJ Earthquakes is 4th with 48 points from 30 games
Risks
- Form: SJ Earthquakes are undefeated in their last 5 games (1 win, 4 draws)
- Defense: Dallas has conceded 1.57 goals per game in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Dallas43%
Draw26%
SJ Earthquakes31%
Double chance
Dallas or draw69%
SJ Earthquakes or draw57%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.74 : 1.45, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Dallas: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Dallas: first goal in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Dallas: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against St. Louis City: 2 goals (81', 90+7')
- SJ Earthquakes: 33% of all goals between minutes 1-15 (5 of 15)
Lineups
Dallas 3-4-2-1 · SJ Earthquakes 3-4-2-1
Dallas
- 42 D. de Sousa Brito
- 25 S. Ibeagha
- 3 O. Urhoghide
- 18 S. Moore
- 14 H. Johansson
- 55 K. da Silva Ferreira
- 17 R. Moschen Benetti
- 77 B. Kamungo
- 21 J. Valiente Cioli
- 7 D. Job
- 9 P. Musa
SJ Earthquakes
- 1 A. Gunn
- 5 D. Munie
- 4 D. Romney
- 18 R. Roberts
- 17 J. Jasinski
- 14 R. Vieira Nan
- 23 E. Löwen
- 2 J. Ricketts
- 34 B. Leroux
- 11 T. Werner
- 7 O. Bouda
Substitutes
- 5 L. Abubakar
- 6 R. Binyamin
- 8 P. Delgado Villa
- 11 A. Julio Santos
- 12 C. Cappis
- 32 N. Norris
- 27 C. Swann
- 40 J. Sirois
- 10 S. Moreno
- 3 P. Marie
- 6 I. Harkes
- 10 N. Tsakiris
- 16 J. Skahan
- 19 P. Judd
- 20 N. Fernandez
- 36 E. Edwards Jr.
- 87 V. Costa De Brito
- 25 M. Floriani
- 9 L. Jovanovic
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