Match report →
San Diego – Seattle Sounders2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
San Diego
1.76
Total xG
3.23
Seattle Sounders
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | San Diego | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.75 | +0.75 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.12 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.12 | |
| Marcus Ingvartsen on the bench (12 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jeppe Tverskov on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Elias Achouri not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| P. Rothrock not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 12% of goal output missing (only 87% available) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: San Diego averages 2.33 goals per game at home in the league this season, Seattle Sounders 1.0 away
- Defense: San Diego allowed 1.66 xG per game in 5 games with xG data, but conceded 2.8 goals per game
Risks
- Form: Seattle Sounders won 3 of their last 5 games, while San Diego remained winless in their last 5 games
- Table: Seattle Sounders rank 7th in the league with 42 points, San Diego sit 12th with 34 points
All probabilities
Result
San Diego43%
Draw26%
Seattle Sounders31%
Double chance
San Diego or draw69%
Seattle Sounders or draw57%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.563%
Under 2.537%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.76 : 1.47, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
2:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- San Diego: 7 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 7 goals from minute 80 onwards in the last 12 games (7 of 19 total)
- Seattle Sounders: 7 of 19 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders: 79% of all goals in the second half (15 of 19, last 12 games)
- Seattle Sounders with Jordan Morris starting: 1.4 goals/game, without him: 0.8 (14/9 games, last 30)
Lineups
San Diego 4-4-2 · Seattle Sounders 4-2-3-1
San Diego
- 13 P. Sisniega Fink
- 33 O. Verhoeven
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 26 M. Duah
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
- 20 A. Godoy
- 12 G. Cordeiro Pirani
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 90 A. Pellegrino
Seattle Sounders
- 26 A. Thomas
- 85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
- 16 A. Roldan
- 25 J. Ragen
- 5 N. Tolo
- 31 H. Dotson
- 7 C. Roldan
- 27 J. Ferreira
- 11 A. Rusnák
- 13 J. Morris
- 9 D. Joveljić
Substitutes
- 8 O. Valakari
- 23 S. Vines
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 36 D. Mimbang Nyangono
- 8 C. Clark
- 17 P. Arriola
- 24 S. Frei
- 37 S. Brunell
- 90 S. Gomez
- 45 P. Kingston
- 4 R. Sailor
- 39 S. Hawkins
- 81 M. Bronnik
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →