Match report →
Chicago Fire – Philadelphia Union1 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Chicago Fire
1.86
Total xG
3.52
Philadelphia Union
1.66
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Chicago Fire | Philadelphia Union |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.52x league average) | +0.61 | |
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.56 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.56 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Philip Zinckernagel on the bench (6 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Leonardo Barroso on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Indiana Vassilev on the bench (4 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Danley Jean Jacques on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) |
Key factors
- Philadelphia Union averaged 4.0 goals per match in recent games compared to their 2.15 season average
- The model calculates a 42% home win probability for Chicago Fire
- Milan Iloski scored 6 goals in his last 5 matches for Philadelphia Union
Risks
- Philadelphia Union concede an average of 1.94 goals per away game
- Chicago Fire averaged 1.4 goals in recent matches compared to their season average of 1.89
All probabilities
Result
Chicago Fire42%
Draw24%
Philadelphia Union34%
Goals
Over 1.588%
Under 1.512%
Over 2.568%
Under 2.532%
Over 3.547%
Under 3.553%
Double chance
Chicago Fire or draw66%
Philadelphia Union or draw58%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes70%
No30%
Most likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:2
7%
3:1
5%
3:2
4%
1:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Philadelphia Union: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Philadelphia Union: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Chicago Fire: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Philadelphia Union: 33% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (11 of 33)
- Robert Lewandowski: 4 of 6 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
Lineups
Chicago Fire 4-4-2 · Philadelphia Union 4-4-2
Chicago Fire
- 1 C. Brady
- 24 R. Dean
- 3 J. Elliott
- 4 M. Mbokazi
- 32 N. Allen
- 18 J. Gomez
- 6 A. Salétros
- 22 M. Pineda
- 19 J. Bamba
- 9 R. Lewandowski
- 7 M. Haile-Selassie
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 4 J. Lukić
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
Substitutes
- 21 A. Hanche-Olsen
- 2 L. Caetano Barroso
- 11 P. Zinckernagel
- 12 P. Dithejane
- 35 S. Oregel Jr.
- 44 J. Cohen
- 29 D. Poręba
- 15 A. Gutman
- 25 J. Gal
- 5 J. Sery
- 2 G. Martínez Turner
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
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