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Major League Soccer

Inter Miami - San Diego

09/20/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Inter Miami
1.6
Total xG
2.7
San Diego
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
IMSD

Inter Miami

Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
+0.02
Telasco Segovia on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
Ian Fray not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)

San Diego

Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.29
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Onni Valakari on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists)
Gabriel Pirani not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 2
    Inter Miami: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 4 goals (80', 83', 89', 90+6')

  • 3
    San Diego: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Mathematical edge: The model calculates a 46% probability for a home win and expects 1.58 goals for Inter Miami
  • Offensive dominance: Inter Miami averaged 5.8 shots on target per game recently and scores 2.44 goals per season match
  • High-scoring stadium: Chase Stadium averaged 4.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches with a 100% BTTS rate
Risk Factors
  • Away defense struggles: San Diego concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
  • Defensive vulnerability: Inter Miami has already conceded an average of 1.84 goals per game this season
  • San Diego negative trend: The visitors arrive with a form of WWLLL after three consecutive defeats
Overview

Inter Miami hosts San Diego at the Chase Stadium

Major League Soccer match on September 20, 2026, 11:00 PM

Inter Miami occupies 3rd place with 45 points

San Diego arrives in 10th place with 30 points

Form

Inter Miami enters with a form of LWDDD

The hosts recorded three consecutive draws recently

San Diego holds a form of WWLLL

The visitors suffered three consecutive defeats in their last matches

Statistics

Inter Miami scores an average of 2.44 goals per game

The hosts concede an average of 1.84 goals

San Diego averages 1.68 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded

Inter Miami has seen 19 matches with over 2.5 goals this season

Key Players

Lionel Messi has recorded 19 goals and 12 assists this season

Luis SuĂĄrez scored 12 goals so far

Anders Dreyer contributed 9 goals and 10 assists for San Diego

Goalkeepers

Dayne St. Clair starts in goal for the hosts with 4 clean sheets

CJ dos Santos features in goal for the visitors with 7 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Chase Stadium

In the last 5 matches at this venue, the average was 4.6 goals per game

Both teams scored in all of these 5 games

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