Match report →
Inter Miami – San Diego2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
1.58
Total xG
2.75
San Diego
1.17
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (1.7 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 3, 7 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 10, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Telasco Segovia on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Ian Fray not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Onni Valakari on the bench (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Gabriel Pirani not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.3 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Mathematical edge: The model calculates a 46% probability for a home win and expects 1.58 goals for Inter Miami
- Offensive dominance: Inter Miami averaged 5.8 shots on target per game recently and scores 2.44 goals per season match
- High-scoring stadium: Chase Stadium averaged 4.6 goals per game in the last 5 matches with a 100% BTTS rate
Risks
- Away defense struggles: San Diego concedes an average of 3.0 goals per away match this season
- Defensive vulnerability: Inter Miami has already conceded an average of 1.84 goals per game this season
- San Diego negative trend: The visitors arrive with a form of WWLLL after three consecutive defeats
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami45%
Draw28%
San Diego27%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw73%
San Diego or draw55%
No draw72%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 9 goals from minute 80 onwards in 12 games. Against CF Montréal: 4 goals (80', 83', 89', 90+6')
- San Diego: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · San Diego 3-4-3
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 4 F. Mura
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 37 M. Falcón Picart
- 15 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 7 R. de Paul
- 42 Y. Bright
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
- 19 G. Berterame
San Diego
- 1 C. Dos Santos
- 26 M. Duah
- 25 I. Pilcher
- 32 I. Murphy
- 3 D. Þórhallsson
- 6 J. Tverskov
- 20 A. Godoy
- 5 K. Sargeant
- 10 A. Dreyer
- 7 M. Ingvartsen
- 99 M. Achouri
Substitutes
- 2 G. Luján Melli
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 20 S. Morales
- 22 D. Ayala
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 56 D. Pintér
- 88 A. Shaw
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 94 C. Bakambu
- 8 O. Valakari
- 23 S. Vines
- 14 B. Zamblé
- 18 D. Ferree
- 90 A. Pellegrino
- 97 C. Mcvey
- 19 D. Vazquez
- 70 A. Alvarado Jr.
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