Match report ā
Philadelphia Union ā Real Salt Lake2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
2.37
Total xG
3.31
Real Salt Lake
0.94
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | Real Salt Lake |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.56x league average) | +0.85 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Attack weakness (0.61x league average) | ā0.72 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.55 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.2 season average) | +0.55 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | ā0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.5 season average) | ā0.20 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | ā0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | ā0.08 | |
| Juan Manuel Sanabria on the bench (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Matchup advantage: Philadelphia currently score more frequently (4.0 goals) than their season average against a vulnerable away defense
- Form gap: Philadelphia won 5 straight matches while Real Salt Lake lost 4 of their last 5
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a high win probability of 68% for the home team
Risks
- Real Salt Lake concede an average of 2.67 goals per away game
- Key absence: D. Luna is out injured for Real Salt Lake (5 goals, 3 assists this season)
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union68%
Draw20%
Real Salt Lake12%
Goals
Over 1.585%
Under 1.515%
Over 2.564%
Under 2.536%
Over 3.542%
Under 3.558%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw88%
Real Salt Lake or draw32%
No draw80%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
1:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Philadelphia Union: 9 wins in 10 games with xG above 1.0 (90% win rate)
- Real Salt Lake: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (10 points lost)
- Philadelphia Union: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Philadelphia Union: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Real Salt Lake: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Philadelphia Union: 35% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (12 of 34)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 Ā· Real Salt Lake 3-4-2-1
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. LukiÄ
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
Real Salt Lake
- 1 R. Cabral Barbosa
- 2 D. Yedlin
- 26 P. Quinton
- 3 K. Henry
- 11 D. Marczuk
- 6 S. Spierings
- 92 N. Caliskan
- 29 S. Junqua
- 39 A. Hezarkhani
- 9 M. Guilavogui
- 22 S. Solans Ormo
Substitutes
- 2 G. MartĆnez Turner
- 8 J. Bueno AƱez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 66 F. Sundstrom
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 23 C. Booth
- 25 C. Guske
- 19 A. Piol
- 31 M. Stajduhar
- 34 L. Moisa
- 98 A. Katranis
- 8 J. Sanabria Magole
- 12 S. Lobzhanidze
- 44 L. De Fougerolles
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