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Major League Soccer

St. Louis City - Minnesota United

09/13/2026, 12:30 AM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
St. Louis City
1.7
Total xG
2.9
Minnesota United
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
SLCMU

St. Louis City

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.46
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.19
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.19
Tomas Totland on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Alexandru Mățan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Chris Durkin on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)

Minnesota United

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match)
+0.36
Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.36
Attack strength (1.26x league average)
-0.28
Marcus Caldeira on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)

  • 2
    St. Louis City: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)

  • 3
    St. Louis City: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)

  • 4
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games

  • 5
    Minnesota United: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)

  • 6
    St. Louis City: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

27%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

80%

Under 1.5

20%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

33%

Under 3.5

67%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

59%

No

41%

Key Factors
  • Form gap: St. Louis is unbeaten in 5 matches while Minnesota lost 3 of their last 5
  • Scoring trend: Both sides are scoring more recently (St. Louis 2.2; Minnesota 2.8 goals) than their season average
  • Offensive volume: Minnesota averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Historic dominance: Minnesota has won all 4 historical meetings against St. Louis
  • Tight schedule: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Lineup rotation: St. Louis starts without key players Tomas Totland, Alexandru Mățan, Sang-bin Jeong, and Chris Durkin
Overview

St. Louis City (6th place, 38 points) host Minnesota United (11th place, 29 points) at Energizer Park

Major League Soccer match on September 13, 2026, 2:30 AM

St. Louis aims to secure playoff positioning while Minnesota looks to climb from the lower half of the table

Form

St. Louis is in stable form, remaining unbeaten in their last 5 matches

DWDWD - W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

The hosts recorded 2 wins and 3 draws recently

Minnesota is struggling with only 1 win in their last 5 matches (LWDLL)

Statistics

St. Louis averages 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded at home

Minnesota averages 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 conceded away from home

Venue history indicates high-scoring matches with an average of 3.4 goals per game

Head-to-Head

The historical record clearly favors the visitors

Minnesota won all 4 previous head-to-head matches against St. Louis with a total score of 12:3

The last encounter ended in a 2-1 win for Minnesota on July 27, 2025

Key Players

Simon Becher leads the hosts with 7 goals and 4 assists this season

Kelvin Yeboah is Minnesota's top scorer with 12 goals and 2 assists

Joaquín Pereyra has been creative in midfield for the visitors with 9 assists

Goalkeepers

Roman Bürki has kept 3 clean sheets for St. Louis City this season

Drake Callender has registered 5 clean sheets in goal for Minnesota United

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Energizer Park

St. Louis boasts a solid home defense conceding just 1.08 goals per game

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 46%

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