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St. Louis City – Minnesota United4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
St. Louis City
1.68
Total xG
2.91
Minnesota United
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | St. Louis City | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.71 | +0.71 |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.46 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.8 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (2.8 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.26x league average) | −0.28 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.19 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.19 | |
| Tomas Totland on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Alexandru Mățan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Sang-bin Jeong on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Chris Durkin on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Marcus Caldeira on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Form gap: St. Louis is unbeaten in 5 matches while Minnesota lost 3 of their last 5
- Scoring trend: Both sides are scoring more recently (St. Louis 2.2; Minnesota 2.8 goals) than their season average
- Offensive volume: Minnesota averaged 6.0 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Historic dominance: Minnesota has won all 4 historical meetings against St. Louis
- Tight schedule: Both teams have only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Lineup rotation: St. Louis starts without key players Tomas Totland, Alexandru Mățan, Sang-bin Jeong, and Chris Durkin
All probabilities
Result
St. Louis City46%
Draw27%
Minnesota United27%
Double chance
St. Louis City or draw73%
Minnesota United or draw54%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.533%
Under 3.567%
Both teams score
Yes59%
No41%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Minnesota United: opponent scores first in 10 of 11 games (91%)
- St. Louis City: first goal in 10 of 12 games (83%)
- St. Louis City: 6 of 14 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 12 games)
- Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 6 of 12 games
- Minnesota United: 32% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (6 of 19)
- St. Louis City: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
St. Louis City 3-4-1-2 · Minnesota United 3-4-3
St. Louis City
- 1 R. Bürki
- 32 T. Baumgartl
- 27 F. Fol
- 99 J. Orozco
- 21 D. Polvara
- 6 C. Wallem
- 19 C. Holse
- 24 D. Edelman
- 20 R. Cardoso dos Santos
- 11 S. Becher
- 9 R. Navarro Leal
Minnesota United
- 12 D. Callender
- 67 C. Harvey Cesneros
- 15 M. Boxall
- 5 N. Romero
- 3 K. Duncan
- 30 O. Géne
- 20 W. Trapp
- 13 A. Markanich
- 26 J. Pereyra
- 9 K. Yeboah
- 8 T. Chancalay
Substitutes
- 42 D. Downs
- 5 L. MacNaughton
- 8 C. Durkin
- 14 T. Totland
- 39 B. Lundt
- 77 S. Jeong
- 4 M. Fall
- 7 T. Ostrák
- 23 A. Măţan
- 11 M. Malone
- 16 A. Jackson
- 1 A. Smir
- 25 N. Triantis
- 27 D. Taylor
- 28 J. Díaz Beleño
- 33 K. Chandler
- 22 M. Caldeira
- 18 M. Gonzalez
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