Match report ā
Nashville SC ā Cincinnati4 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Nashville SC
1.72
Total xG
3.02
Cincinnati
1.30
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nashville SC | Cincinnati |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | ā0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average) | ā0.16 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | ā0.08 | |
| KĆ©vin Denkey not in squad (11 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Pavel Bucha not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.3 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Nashville concedes only 0.75 goals on average at home, while Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.25 goals away from home
- Cincinnati recently averaged a strong 6.8 shots on target in recent matches but must do without KĆ©vin Denkey and Pavel Bucha
- The calculated model prediction favors the league leaders Nashville SC with a 46% win probability
Risks
- Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.25 goals per away match according to seasonal statistics
- Nashville's recent goal production is stalling at an average of 2.0 compared to their season average of 2.3
All probabilities
Result
Nashville SC46%
Draw26%
Cincinnati28%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Double chance
Nashville SC or draw72%
Cincinnati or draw54%
No draw74%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
4:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)
- Cincinnati: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Cincinnati: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)
- Nashville SC: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Nashville SC 4-4-2 Ā· Cincinnati 3-4-1-2
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar RodrĆguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 7 C. Espinoza
- 8 P. Yazbek
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 11 E. Saad
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 9 S. Surridge
Cincinnati
- 18 R. Celentano
- 11 S. Gidi
- 21 M. Miazga
- 12 M. Robinson
- 20 P. Bucha
- 5 O. Nwobodo
- 22 G. Valenzuela
- 66 E. Echenique PeƱa
- 17 K. Mboma Dem
- 9 A. Denkey
- 10 E. da Silva Ferreira
Substitutes
- 1 J. Willis
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 19 A. Muyl
- 22 J. Bauer
- 37 A. Qasem
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 2 A. Powell
- 4 N. Hagglund
- 13 E. Louro
- 15 T. Hadebe
- 16 T. Barlow
- 24 K. Smith
- 27 B. Anunga
- 29 B. RamĆrez LeĆ³n
- 99 A. Jabbari
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