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Major League Soccer

Nashville SC - Cincinnati

08/30/2026, 12:30 AM

4 : 0
Expected Goals
Nashville SC
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Cincinnati
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NSCIN

Nashville SC

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.08
Full strength squad available

Cincinnati

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.3 season average)
-0.16
KĆ©vin Denkey not in squad (11 goals, 3 assists)
Pavel Bucha not in squad (5 goals, 4 assists)
19% of goal output missing (only 81% available)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 9 of 11 games (82%)

  • 2
    Cincinnati: 8 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)

  • 3
    Cincinnati: first goal in 8 of 12 games (67%)

  • 4
    Nashville SC: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

26%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

54%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • Nashville concedes only 0.75 goals on average at home, while Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.25 goals away from home
  • Cincinnati recently averaged a strong 6.8 shots on target in recent matches but must do without KĆ©vin Denkey and Pavel Bucha
  • The calculated model prediction favors the league leaders Nashville SC with a 46% win probability
Risk Factors
  • Cincinnati concedes an average of 3.25 goals per away match according to seasonal statistics
  • Nashville's recent goal production is stalling at an average of 2.0 compared to their season average of 2.3
Overview

Nashville SC (1st place, 49 points) hosts Cincinnati (6th place, 31 points) at GEODIS Park

Top clash on August 30, 2026, 2:30 AM

The hosts enter the match as league leaders

Form

Nashville SC comes in with form LDWWW

Most recently 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Cincinnati travels with form LWDWD

The visitors recently recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Nashville SC scores an average of 2.05 goals per game this season

In home games they concede only 0.75 goals on average

Cincinnati averages a strong 2.33 goals scored per game this season

In away games the visitors concede an average of 3.25 goals

The league leaders' defensive strength meets a vulnerable away defense

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

Cincinnati leads the record with 2 wins

Nashville SC secured 1 win alongside 1 draw

The goal difference is balanced at 6 to 6

The last encounter ended 2-1 in favor of Cincinnati

Key Players

Hany Mukhtar leads Nashville SC with 9 goals and 5 assists

Sam Surridge has already scored 12 goals this season for the hosts

Cristian Espinoza shines with 3 goals and 8 assists

For Cincinnati Evander pulls the strings with 13 goals and 10 assists

Tom Barlow contributed 6 goals and 1 assist

Kenji Mboma Dem completes the attack with 5 goals

Not nominated: KĆ©vin Denkey (11 goals, 3 assists) and Pavel Bucha (5 goals, 4 assists)

Goalkeepers

Brian Schwake has been in goal 21 times for the hosts this season

He relies on a defense with a total of 9 clean sheets

Roman Celentano guarded Cincinnati's goal 19 times this campaign

The visitors have managed only 2 clean sheets so far

Influences

GEODIS Park features a natural grass surface

An average of 3.0 goals per game were scored here in recent matches

Both teams scored in 60% of the matches at GEODIS Park

The league leaders' strong home form is supported by their home crowd

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