Match report â
Inter Miami â New York City2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Inter Miami
2.25
Total xG
3.45
New York City
1.20
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Inter Miami | New York City |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.7 goals/match) | +1.18 | +1.18 |
| Attack strength (1.23x league average) | â0.23 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | â0.16 | |
| Declining form (2 vs 2.5 season average) | â0.16 | |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | â0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | â0.11 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.6 season average) | â0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | â0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| M. Silvetti not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Hannes Wolf on the bench (6 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Model prediction: Mathematical analysis calculates a 60% home win probability with expected 2.25 to 1.20 goals
- Tactical dominance: Inter Miami averaged 6.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Head-to-head edge: Inter Miami won 3 of the last 5 meetings against New York City
Risks
- Defensive weakness for the home side: Inter Miami concedes an average of 1.79 goals per match this season
- Low offensive output for visitors: New York City averaged only 4.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Lineup change: Hannes Wolf is not included in New York City's starting XI
All probabilities
Result
Inter Miami60%
Draw22%
New York City18%
Goals
Over 1.587%
Under 1.513%
Over 2.567%
Under 2.533%
Over 3.545%
Under 3.555%
Double chance
Inter Miami or draw82%
New York City or draw40%
No draw78%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
Most likely scores
1:1
10%
2:1
10%
2:0
8%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- New York City: dropped a lead in 5 of 7 games (12 points lost)
- New York City: 80% of all goals in the first half (12 of 15, last 12 games)
- Inter Miami: 3 cards per game (31 yellows, 2 reds in 11 games)
- Inter Miami: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (8 points lost)
Lineups
Inter Miami 4-3-3 · New York City 4-2-3-1
Inter Miami
- 97 D. St Clair
- 2 G. LujĂĄn Melli
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. ReguilĂłn RodrĂguez
- 7 R. de Paul
- 22 D. Ayala
- 80 M. Galarza Fonda
- 10 L. Messi
- 9 L. SuĂĄrez DĂaz
- 19 G. Berterame
New York City
- 49 F. Matthew
- 24 T. Gray
- 13 T. Martins Bueno
- 6 J. Sands
- 2 N. Cavallo
- 21 A. O'Neill
- 8 A. Perea Castañeda
- 26 A. Ojeda
- 7 N. FernĂĄndez Mercau
- 9 B. Traore
- 16 A. MartĂnez Batista
Substitutes
- 8 T. Segovia PĂ©rez
- 17 I. Fray
- 20 S. Morales
- 34 R. RĂos Novo
- 37 M. FalcĂłn Picart
- 56 D. Pintér
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 88 A. Shaw
- 11 R. Fillipi Marinho de Souza
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 15 F. Caicedo Jaramillo
- 11 T. Bacelar Martins
- 17 H. Wolf
- 22 K. O'Toole
- 30 T. Romero Keubler
- 32 J. Shore
- 34 R. Pereira Bicalho
- 3 M. Miazga
- 23 M. Murray
- 88 M. Jones
- 20 L. Sousa Santos
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