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Major League Soccer

New York RB - Charlotte

07/25/2026, 10:30 PM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
New York RB
1.6
Total xG
2.9
Charlotte
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
NYRCHA

New York RB

Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
-0.53
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.28
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.23
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.11
Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average)
+0.11

Charlotte

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-0.19
Small sample (6 matches) - regression to mean
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.04
Idan Toklomati on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists)
Wilfried Zaha not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists)
David Schnegg not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Charlotte: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 2
    New York RB: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Charlotte with Wilfried Zaha: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

43%

Draw

27%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

57%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • Goal threat rising: New York RB currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6)
  • Tactical metrics: Charlotte showed offensive strength in recent matches, averaging 5.2 shots on target
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 43% probability for a home win
Risk Factors
  • Fatigue factor: Charlotte has only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Away vulnerability: Charlotte concedes an average of 3.5 goals per away game
  • Restricted data availability regarding weather conditions
Overview

New York RB host Charlotte at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

Major League Soccer match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

A direct table clash between the 8th and 7th positions

Both teams currently hold 22 points

Form

New York RB shows the form WWDWL

They recently recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

Charlotte travels with the form DLWWD

The visitors recently achieved 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

New York RB scores an average of 1.63 goals and concedes 2.19 goals

Both teams scored in 12 out of 16 matches

Charlotte scores an average of 1.63 goals and concedes 1.56 goals

In away games, Charlotte concedes an average of 3.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches

Both teams have secured 2 wins each, with 1 draw

The goal difference stands at 9:11 from New York RB's perspective

The last encounter on March 21, 2026, ended 6:1 in favor of Charlotte

Key Players

Julian Hall with 9 goals and 3 assists this season

Jorge Ruvalcaba has contributed 7 goals so far

Cade Cowell records 2 goals and 4 assists

Pep Biel shines with 7 goals and 5 assists

Kerwin Vargas has scored 3 goals and provided 3 assists

Liel Abada registers 1 goal and 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Ethan Horvath guards the goal for the hosts, securing 1 clean sheet in 16 appearances

Kristijan Kahlina is in goal for the visitors, keeping 2 clean sheets in 16 appearances

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Sports Illustrated Stadium

The venue history shows an average of 3.8 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 historical matches at this stadium

No weather data is available

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