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New York RB – Charlotte0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
New York RB
1.61
Total xG
2.94
Charlotte
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | New York RB | Charlotte |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Attack weakness (0.77x league average) | −0.53 | |
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.28 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.23 | |
| Attack weakness (0.69x league average) | −0.19 | |
| Small sample (6 matches), regression to mean | +0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Idan Toklomati on the bench (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Wilfried Zaha not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| David Schnegg not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Goal threat rising: New York RB currently scores more frequently (2.0) than their season average (1.6)
- Tactical metrics: Charlotte showed offensive strength in recent matches, averaging 5.2 shots on target
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 43% probability for a home win
Risks
- Fatigue factor: Charlotte has only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Away vulnerability: Charlotte concedes an average of 3.5 goals per away game
- Restricted data availability regarding weather conditions
All probabilities
Result
New York RB43%
Draw27%
Charlotte30%
Double chance
New York RB or draw70%
Charlotte or draw57%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Charlotte: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- New York RB: 67% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Charlotte with Wilfried Zaha: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
New York RB 4-3-3 · Charlotte 4-2-3-1
New York RB
- 34 E. Horvath
- 12 D. Nealis
- 2 J. Che
- 14 J. Bazán Medina
- 56 M. Dos Santos
- 48 R. Donkor
- 15 A. Mehmeti
- 10 E. Forsberg
- 7 C. Cowell
- 16 J. Hall
- 11 J. Ruvalcaba
Charlotte
- 1 K. Kahlina
- 14 N. Byrne
- 44 M. Agyemang
- 22 F. Kessler
- 15 H. Toffolo
- 8 A. Westwood
- 17 L. de la Torre
- 18 K. Calderón Vargas
- 16 P. Mas Jaume
- 11 L. Abada
- 9 Idan Toklomati
Substitutes
- 3 J. Marshall-Rutty
- 4 G. Berggren
- 5 O. Valencia Arauz
- 70 A. Rojas Maroto
- 77 J. McCarthy
- 26 T. Parker
- 37 M. Sofo
- 80 N. Worth
- 91 M. Jiménez Murillo
- 21 T. Miller
- 3 T. Ream
- 4 A. Privett
- 7 A. Goodwin
- 13 B. Bronico
- 25 T. Smalls
- 28 D. Diani
- 37 R. Aloko
- 35 W. Cleary
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