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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - Nashville SC

05/02/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
1.3
Total xG
2.7
Nashville SC
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
PUNS

Philadelphia Union

Attack weakness (0.69x league average)
-1.18
Small sample (4 matches) - regression to mean
+0.68
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 1, 14 places gap)
-0.20
Rising form (1.5 vs 1 season average)
+0.15
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.06
11% of goal output missing (only 88% available)
Strong home record (1.4 vs 1 goals/match)

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.50
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 15, 14 places gap)
+0.09
Small sample (5 matches) - regression to mean
+0.04
Attack weakness (0.77x league average)
+0.03
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.6 goals/match)
-0.01
Hany Mukhtar on the bench (3 goals, 4 assists)
Cristian Espinoza on the bench (3 goals, 3 assists)
Andy NĂĄjar on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
65% of goal output missing (only 44% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 2.6 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.71
+0.71
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Nashville SC: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC with Reed Baker-Whiting: 10.4 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Philadelphia Union with Cavan Sullivan: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Nashville SC: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 5
    Philadelphia Union: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

32%

Draw

29%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

76%

Under 1.5

24%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

68%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • Critical absence: Nashville SC must do without Hany Mukhtar, Cristian Espinoza, and Andy NĂĄjar, resulting in only 45% of the usual starting XI goal threat being available
  • Form and league position: Nashville SC (1st place) is in excellent form with 4 wins in their last 5 games, while Philadelphia Union (15th place) managed only 1 win in the same period
  • Home team's defensive weakness: Philadelphia Union concedes an average of 2.5 goals per home game
Overview

Philadelphia Union host Nashville SC in Major League Soccer on May 2, 2026, 7:30 PM ET

Philadelphia Union currently sit in 15th place with 5 points

Nashville SC lead the table in 1st place with 22 points

The match is crucial for Nashville's top ambitions and Philadelphia's fight to catch up

Form

Philadelphia Union's form in the last 5 games is LWDDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This includes 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

The last match resulted in a 0-2 away loss against Columbus Crew

Nashville SC shows form WLWWW in their last 5 games

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss

The team has won its last 3 consecutive games, including a 4-2 home win against Charlotte

Statistics

Philadelphia Union averages 0.9 goals scored per game and concedes 1.7 goals this season

At home, the average is 1.0 goals scored and 2.5 goals conceded

Both teams scored in 6 of their matches, and they kept 1 clean sheet

Nashville SC boasts an average of 2.33 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Nashville averages 2.5 goals scored and concedes 1.0 goal

Nashville achieved 4 clean sheets and saw over 2.5 goals in 5 matches

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia Union secured 2 wins and Nashville SC also won 2 times

The goal difference is 6:5 in favor of Philadelphia Union

The last encounter on July 6, 2025, ended with a 0-1 away win for Philadelphia Union

The head-to-head record is even

Key Players

For Philadelphia Union, Milan Iloski is important with 2 goals and 1 assist, holding an average rating of 6.93

Danley Jean Jacques scored 2 goals and Nathan Harriel 1 goal with a rating of 7.02

For Nashville SC, Patrick Yazbek (1 goal, 3 assists) stands out with a rating of 7.11, as does Warren Madrigal (2 goals, 2 assists) with a rating of 7.05

Ahmed Qasem contributed 1 goal and 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake (Philadelphia Union) kept 1 clean sheet this season

Brian Schwake (Nashville SC) achieved 4 clean sheets

Influences

Philadelphia Union averages 1.0 home goal scored per game and concedes 2.5 goals at home

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