Match report →
DC United – Nashville SC2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
DC United
1.28
Total xG
2.60
Nashville SC
1.31
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | DC United | Nashville SC |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.73 | +0.73 |
| Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.54 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.40 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.24 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 2.2 season average) | −0.24 | |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | −0.09 | |
| Small sample (8 matches), regression to mean | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Bryan Acosta on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.2 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offensive trend: DC United is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.6)
- Defensive strength: Nashville SC concedes only 0.75 goals per away match this season
- Spectacular venue: Audi Field has averaged 4.4 total goals per match in recent fixtures
Risks
- DC United's defensive vulnerability at home, conceding an average of 1.89 goals per match
- Offensive slowdown: Nashville SC's goal scoring has dropped to 1.4 recently compared to their 2.2 season average
- Crucial absences for Nashville SC with key attackers like C. Espinoza and midfielder B. Acosta missing
All probabilities
Result
DC United35%
Draw30%
Nashville SC36%
Double chance
DC United or draw64%
Nashville SC or draw65%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
8%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:0
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- DC United: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Nashville SC: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- DC United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Nashville SC: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
DC United 4-4-2 · Nashville SC 4-2-3-1
DC United
- 1 S. Johnson
- 5 S. Hefti
- 3 L. Bartlett
- 15 K. Rowles
- 6 K. Kurokawa
- 25 J. Hopkins
- 21 A. Dozzell
- 23 B. Servania
- 7 J. Martins Peglow
- 9 T. Baribo
- 11 L. Munteanu
Nashville SC
- 99 B. Schwake
- 31 A. Najar Rodríguez
- 4 J. Palacios Murillo
- 3 M. Woledzi
- 2 D. Lovitz
- 20 E. Tagseth
- 16 M. Corcoran
- 14 S. Mohammed
- 10 H. Mukhtar
- 37 A. Qasem
- 9 S. Surridge
Substitutes
- 4 M. Peltola
- 8 J. Stroud
- 13 S. Nealis
- 26 A. Bono
- 27 N. Markovic
- 77 H. Kijima
- 22 N. Ordaz
- 32 O. Avilez
- 40 K. Reynoso
- 11 E. Saad
- 5 J. Maher
- 6 B. Acosta Ramos
- 22 J. Bauer
- 23 J. Knight
- 41 W. Madrigal Molina
- 27 R. Vanarthur Baker-Whiting
- 13 X. Valdez
- 12 C. Brunet
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →