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Major League Soccer

DC United - Nashville SC

08/01/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
DC United
1.3
Total xG
2.6
Nashville SC
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

8%

2:1

8%

0:2

6%

2:0

6%
What influences the xG?
DUNS

DC United

Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.40
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.10
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.06
Full strength squad available

Nashville SC

Defensive strength (0.8 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.54
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.24
Declining form (1.4 vs 2.2 season average)
-0.24
Attack weakness (0.62x league average)
-0.15
Small sample (8 matches) - regression to mean
+0.07
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.04
Bryan Acosta on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 2.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.73
+0.73
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    DC United: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Nashville SC with Jeison Palacios: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Nashville SC: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 4
    DC United: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Nashville SC: 76% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

35%

Draw

30%

Away Win

36%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

64%

Away or Draw

65%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

54%

No

46%

Key Factors
  • Offensive trend: DC United is currently scoring more frequently (1.8) than their season average (1.6)
  • Defensive strength: Nashville SC concedes only 0.75 goals per away match this season
  • Spectacular venue: Audi Field has averaged 4.4 total goals per match in recent fixtures
Risk Factors
  • DC United's defensive vulnerability at home, conceding an average of 1.89 goals per match
  • Offensive slowdown: Nashville SC's goal scoring has dropped to 1.4 recently compared to their 2.2 season average
  • Crucial absences for Nashville SC with key attackers like C. Espinoza and midfielder B. Acosta missing
Overview

DC United (8th place, 22 points) host league leaders Nashville SC (1st place, 39 points) at Audi Field

MLS match on August 1, 2026, 11:30 PM

A crucial matchup for both sides

Form

DC United show a form of LDDDW in their last five matches

They secured a 2-1 win against Toronto in their last game

Nashville SC enter with a form of WWWWL

The visitors lost 0-1 to Orlando City in their last outing

Statistics

DC United average 1.41 goals scored and 1.59 goals conceded per match

At home, their conceded goals rise to an average of 1.89 per game

Nashville SC boast a strong defense, conceding just 0.71 goals per match

The visitors average 1.94 goals scored per game

Head-to-Head

5 head-to-head matches recorded

The last meeting on May 10, 2026 ended in a 2-2 draw

DC United won 2 matches, Nashville SC won 1 match, with 2 draws

Key Players

Tai Baribo leads DC United with 10 goals this season

Louis Munteanu contributed 5 goals and 1 assist

For Nashville SC, Sam Surridge is highly dangerous with 10 goals

Hany Mukhtar shines with 6 goals and 4 assists

Goalkeepers

Sean Johnson played 17 matches for DC United and kept 4 clean sheets

Brian Schwake made 17 appearances for Nashville SC and kept 8 clean sheets

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Audi Field

Audi Field averaged 4.4 total goals per match in recent games

Both teams scored in all 5 analyzed home matches

100% BTTS rate in domestic home fixtures

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