Match report →
CF Montréal – Inter Miami0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
CF Montréal
1.23
Total xG
2.62
Inter Miami
1.39
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | CF Montréal | Inter Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.72x league average) | −1.00 | |
| High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match) | +0.80 | +0.80 |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.61 | |
| Small sample (7 matches), regression to mean | +0.47 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.36 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.8 season average) | +0.36 | |
| Attack strength (1.22x league average) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (9 matches), regression to mean | +0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap) | −0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Lionel Messi not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo De Paul not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 31% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Key absences for the visitors: Inter Miami are without Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, reducing their offensive power
- Huge form gap: Inter Miami travel with 5 consecutive wins, while Montréal are winless in their last 5 games
- Strong offensive statistics: Inter Miami averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risks
- Tight schedule: CF Montréal enter this demanding fixture with only 2 days of rest since their last match
- Defensive instability: Both teams concede an average of nearly two goals per game this season
All probabilities
Result
CF Montréal31%
Draw29%
Inter Miami39%
Double chance
CF Montréal or draw61%
Inter Miami or draw69%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.549%
Under 2.551%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:0
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- CF Montréal with Wikelman José Carmona Torres: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Inter Miami with Yannick Bright: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Inter Miami: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
CF Montréal 4-3-3 · Inter Miami 4-4-2
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 24 E. Morales Badillo
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 6 S. Piette
- 22 V. Loturi
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 9 P. Owusu
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
Inter Miami
- 34 R. Ríos Novo
- 4 F. Mura
- 17 I. Fray
- 16 M. dos Santos Silva
- 3 S. Reguilón Rodríguez
- 42 Y. Bright
- 5 C. Casimiro
- 8 T. Segovia Pérez
- 24 M. Silvetti
- 19 G. Berterame
- 9 L. Suárez Díaz
Substitutes
- 7 D. Pereira Gil
- 2 J. Neal
- 23 N. Streit
- 29 O. Escobar
- 5 B. Craig
- 26 I. Losenko
- 41 S. Keita
- 21 F. Herbers
- 32 N. Allen
- 41 D. Ruiz
- 56 D. Pintér
- 97 D. St Clair
- 76 C. Abadia-Reda
- 70 D. Sumalla
- 59 P. Plambeck
- 52 D. Rey
- 55 I. Urkidi
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