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Major League Soccer

CF Montréal - Inter Miami

07/25/2026, 11:30 PM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
CF Montréal
1.2
Total xG
2.6
Inter Miami
1.4
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

0:2

7%

2:0

5%
What influences the xG?
CMIM

CF Montréal

Attack weakness (0.72x league average)
-1.00
Small sample (7 matches) - regression to mean
+0.47
Defensive strength (2.1 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.22
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 2, 11 places gap)
-0.15
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
Wikelman José Carmona Torres not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)

Inter Miami

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.61
5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match)
+0.36
Rising form (4 vs 2.8 season average)
+0.36
Attack strength (1.22x league average)
-0.26
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.19
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 13, 11 places gap)
+0.07
Lionel Messi  not in squad (12 goals, 8 assists)
Rodrigo De Paul not in squad (4 goals, 4 assists)
31% of goal output missing (only 70% available)
Weak away record (1.5 vs 2.8 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.3 goals/match)
+0.80
+0.80
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Inter Miami: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    CF Montréal with Wikelman José Carmona Torres: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Inter Miami with Yannick Bright: 3.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Inter Miami: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Inter Miami: 2 comebacks in 8 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

31%

Draw

29%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

49%

Under 2.5

51%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

69%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Key absences for the visitors: Inter Miami are without Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, reducing their offensive power
  • Huge form gap: Inter Miami travel with 5 consecutive wins, while Montréal are winless in their last 5 games
  • Strong offensive statistics: Inter Miami averaged 7.8 shots on target in recent matches
Risk Factors
  • Tight schedule: CF Montréal enter this demanding fixture with only 2 days of rest since their last match
  • Defensive instability: Both teams concede an average of nearly two goals per game this season
Overview

CF Montréal host Inter Miami at Stade Saputo

MLS match on July 25, 2026, 11:30 PM

Inter Miami sit in 2nd place with 34 points

CF Montréal occupy 13th place with 15 points

Form

CF Montréal enter with a form of DLDDL

The hosts have recorded 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games

Inter Miami boast a perfect form of WWWWW

The visitors have won all of their last 5 matches

Statistics

Inter Miami average 2.63 goals scored per game

CF Montréal concede an average of 2.00 goals per match

Montréal score 1.43 goals per game on average at home

Miami score 2.56 goals per game on their travels

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct encounters in total

Inter Miami lead with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Montréal

The last match ended in a 4-1 victory for Inter Miami on July 5, 2025

Key Players

Prince Owusu has scored 9 goals this season

Matty Longstaff contributed 3 assists so far

Luis Suárez shines for Inter Miami with 8 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Sébastian Breza starts in goal for Montréal with 1 appearance this season

Rocco Ríos Novo protects the goal for Inter Miami

Montréal registered 4 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Stade Saputo

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.0 goals per game

Montréal concede only 1.0 goal per game at home on average

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