Match report →
Philadelphia Union – CF Montréal2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Philadelphia Union
1.88
Total xG
2.95
CF Montréal
1.07
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Philadelphia Union | CF Montréal |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.69 | +0.69 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | +0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Noah Streit on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Disastrous away record for Montréal, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away match
- Philadelphia's offensive form is rising, averaging 2.4 goals per game recently
- Philadelphia's dominance in recent head-to-head history with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings
Risks
- CF Montréal recorded high offensive quality in recent matches with an average of 6.6 shots on target
- Defensive vulnerability for Philadelphia, conceding an average of 1.77 goals per game this season
- Key offensive options Noah Streit (1 goal, 1 assist) and Victor Loturi (1 goal, 1 assist) are missing from Montréal's starting lineup
All probabilities
Result
Philadelphia Union55%
Draw25%
CF Montréal20%
Double chance
Philadelphia Union or draw80%
CF Montréal or draw45%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.556%
Under 2.544%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
6%
3:0
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Neil Pierre: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)
- CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)
Lineups
Philadelphia Union 4-4-2 · CF Montréal 4-2-3-1
Philadelphia Union
- 18 A. Blake
- 39 F. Westfield
- 44 N. Pierre
- 26 N. Harriel
- 27 K. Wagner
- 6 C. Sullivan
- 21 D. Jean Jacques
- 4 J. Lukić
- 19 I. Vassilev
- 10 M. Iloski
- 9 B. Damiani
CF Montréal
- 1 S. Breza
- 27 D. Bugaj
- 2 J. Neal
- 4 B. Vera Ramírez
- 13 L. Petrasso
- 6 S. Piette
- 8 M. Longstaff
- 18 H. Synchuk
- 21 F. Herbers
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 9 P. Owusu
Substitutes
- 5 J. Sery
- 8 J. Bueno Añez
- 11 A. Bedoya
- 14 J. Rafanello
- 23 E. Alladoh
- 76 A. Rick
- 16 B. Bender
- 51 M. Jakupovic
- 33 Q. Sullivan
- 17 D. Sealy
- 3 B. Ceballos Jiménez
- 14 D. Ríos Calderón
- 16 W. Carmona Torres
- 22 V. Loturi
- 23 N. Streit
- 29 O. Escobar
- 31 T. Guilier
- 5 B. Craig
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