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Major League Soccer

Philadelphia Union - CF Montréal

09/05/2026, 11:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Philadelphia Union
1.9
Total xG
2.9
CF Montréal
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

6%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
PUCM

Philadelphia Union

4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (2.4 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.21
Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
+0.12
Full strength squad available

CF Montréal

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.05
Noah Streit on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Victor Loturi on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.69
+0.69
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Neil Pierre: 3 of 3 goals after minute 60 (last 12 games)

  • 2
    CF Montréal: dropped a lead in 3 of 5 games (6 points lost)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

25%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

56%

Under 2.5

44%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

45%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

57%

No

43%

Key Factors
  • Disastrous away record for Montréal, conceding an average of 3.0 goals per away match
  • Philadelphia's offensive form is rising, averaging 2.4 goals per game recently
  • Philadelphia's dominance in recent head-to-head history with 3 wins in the last 5 meetings
Risk Factors
  • CF Montréal recorded high offensive quality in recent matches with an average of 6.6 shots on target
  • Defensive vulnerability for Philadelphia, conceding an average of 1.77 goals per game this season
  • Key offensive options Noah Streit (1 goal, 1 assist) and Victor Loturi (1 goal, 1 assist) are missing from Montréal's starting lineup
Overview

Philadelphia Union (12th place, 24 points) face CF Montréal (14th place, 21 points)

Match at Subaru Park on September 5, 2026, 11:30 PM

A crucial clash in the lower half of the Major League Soccer table

The model predicts a home win probability of 55%

Form

Philadelphia Union is in strong form with a WWDDW record (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently secured a 3-1 away win against New York RB

CF Montréal travels after a heavy 1-7 defeat against Inter Miami

Montréal's current form stands at DDWDL

Statistics

Philadelphia scores 1.55 goals per game on average and concedes 1.77

CF Montréal shows severe defensive struggles away from home, conceding 3.0 goals per away match

At home, Philadelphia scored 12 goals in 8 games this season

The model's goal prediction is 1.88 for the home team and 1.07 for the away team

Head-to-Head

Philadelphia Union dominates the recent head-to-head record with 3 wins in 5 matches

The last meeting on April 11, 2026, ended in a 2-1 victory for Philadelphia

Montréal managed only one win during this span

Key Players

Milan Iloski leads Philadelphia with 11 goals and 2 assists

Cavan Sullivan has contributed 3 goals and 3 assists so far

Bruno Damiani scored 3 goals and provided 2 assists

For Montréal, Prince Owusu stands out with 13 goals and 6 assists

Matty Longstaff registered 2 goals and 3 assists

Brayan Vera scored 1 goal and provided 1 assist

Goalkeepers

Andre Blake guards the net for Philadelphia Union with an average rating of 6.69

Sébastian Breza starts in goal for CF Montréal with an average rating of 6.47

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Subaru Park

Historical games at this venue average 3.2 goals per match

Both teams scored in 80% of Philadelphia's home games at this venue

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