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Major League Soccer

Minnesota United - Atlanta United

08/20/2026, 12:30 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Minnesota United
1.7
Total xG
2.7
Atlanta United
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

10%

2:0

10%

1:2

6%

3:1

5%
What influences the xG?
MUAU

Minnesota United

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.37
Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
-0.33
Small sample (9 matches) - regression to mean
+0.14
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.13
Standings advantage (pos 9 vs 15, 6 places gap)
+0.05
31% of goal output missing (only 90% available)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.2 goals/match)

Atlanta United

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.07
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 9, 6 places gap)
-0.07

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.70
+0.70
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlanta United with Stian Gregersen: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlanta United: 84% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Atlanta United: scored only after the break in 5 of 8 games

  • 4
    Minnesota United: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Minnesota United with Mauricio Gonzalez: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

27%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

77%

Under 1.5

23%

Over 2.5

50%

Under 2.5

50%

Over 3.5

28%

Under 3.5

72%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Tactical offensive: Minnesota United averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • Away struggles: Atlanta United concede an average of 2.71 goals when playing away from home
  • Model prediction: The mathematical system favors the hosts with a 51% home win probability
Risk Factors
  • Hosts winless run: Minnesota United have failed to win any of their last 5 fixtures
  • Stagnant offense: Minnesota's recent scoring rate of 1.0 is below their season average of 1.2
  • Atlanta attacking upgrade: The visitors are scoring more frequently now (1.4) compared to their season average (1.2)
Overview

Minnesota United host Atlanta United

Major League Soccer fixture on August 20, 2026, 12:30 AM at Allianz Field

9th-placed hosts face the 15th-placed visitors

Both teams are fighting for crucial points in the standings

Form

Minnesota United show a form of DLDDD with 4 draws and 1 loss

Atlanta United enter with a form of LDLLW, featuring 1 win and 3 defeats

Minnesota are winless in their last 5 games, whereas Atlanta won their most recent match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Minnesota United average 1.11 goals scored and 1.37 goals conceded per match

Atlanta United also score 1.11 goals on average but concede a high 2.71 goals per away game

The visitors are yet to record a clean sheet away from home this season

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these teams

Minnesota United won that single encounter with a 2:1 scoreline

The historical advantage lies slightly with the home side

Key Players

Midfielder JoaquĂ­n Pereyra stands out for the hosts with a 7.43 season rating, 2 goals, and 6 assists

Attacker TomĂĄs Chancalay has contributed 2 goals and 4 assists

Atlanta rely on Miguel AlmirĂłn, who boasts a strong 7.45 average rating and 3 goals

Goalkeepers

Drake Callender guards the net for Minnesota with a seasonal average rating of 6.91

Lucas Hoyos is in goal for Atlanta with a rating of 6.72

Minnesota have recorded 5 clean sheets this season compared to only 1 for Atlanta

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Allianz Field

Minnesota United show defensive solidity at home, conceding only 1.00 goals per game

Home advantage could be key given Atlanta's poor away record

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